As if surpassing tennis weren’t enough, here’s another reason to like Iga Świątek: Part of her preparation for big tennis events includes includes reading a thematic book. French literature before and during Roland Garros. Liane Moriarty in conjunction with Australia. For Wimbledon 2023, a Goodreads suggestion might be Great Expectations. Without the help of a benefactor, the world No. 1 took the French Open for the third time. And she now comes to Wimbledon as a heavy favorite. Świątek is not always comfortable in this position—last year her 37-match win streak was stopped on the shaved grass of the All England Club. Still, her vast skills translate. And winning her first title here would be another step toward establishing herself as the truly generational player she is.
The top 16:
1. Iga Świątek
Coming off her fourth major, she is the favorite. Among other virtues: She knows that she need not be playing her best to win. It’s perhaps a little disconcerting—and encouraging to the field—that she’s played Wimbledon only three times (and never reached Week 1) but she is a former WB junior champ (2018).
2. Aryna Sabalenka
A—dare we say it?—credible pick to win a second major of 2023? Her win in Australian was a major (and major) triumph. But so was her play since, lots of deep runs, a takedown of Świątek in the Madrid final and a certain quirky mirth. You worry about the French defeat—holding match point in the semis and then a complete capitulation. You worry about the effects of the Ukraine War and difficult questions she’ll undoubtedly face in Russia-hostile England. But that power + that surface = a real contender.
3. Elena Rybakina
Your defending champ but the No. 3 seed without the benefit of last year’s points. Which says a lot about how much she achieved in addition to Wimbledon. But real health concerns here, specifically her struggles to shake the virus that wrecked her Roland Garros.
4. Jessie Pegula
The highest-ranked American, male or female, and there’s so much to like here. Barely two years ago, she resided outside the top 50. Now, she’s not just a top-five player but a reliable one. But is she a threat to win majors? One isn’t convinced that she is entirely convinced.
5. Caroline Garcia
Mrs. October. A lovely player to watch. Has a fluid game that should translate to grass. Sadly, there are enough data points to suggest that she is simply different (and better) at conventional tour events than she is at majors. She’s entered 44 majors. She has lost before the quarterfinals 42 times.
6. Ons Jabeur
A finalist last year. And her quirky, sui generis game translates to grass, her wealth of touch trumping her poverty of power. But between some niggling injuries and players getting more of a read on her game (and, of course, the Netflix curse), it’s been an unremarkable 2023 so far.
7. Coco Gauff
Some players come into majors with an uncertain health status. She comes in with an uncertain forehand status. This has gone from shot-that-could-be-tightened to something veering on a crisis. (All that while she arrives with a new coach after suspending operations with Diego Moyano). Coming off a French Open that included four wins (though none over a top-50 opponent) and then a retreat against Świątek. Gauff will win majors one day. But she could use a solid tournament.
8. Maria Sakkari
One career title for a player who’s spent so long in the top 10 sums it up. A fine, fun, athletic, versatile player. But her struggles to close matches and crises of confidence have limited her success.
9. Petra Kvitová
Miami title bodes well, suggesting she can still win big events. Her title last week in Berlin bodes well, suggesting she can still win grass events. It’s been a while but remember, she’s won this event twice. Bettors have her as a top-five favorite, and it’s hard to disagree.
10. Barbora Krejčíková
Czech was in a bit of a slump. But her run to the Birmingham final suggests she’s snapping out of it. Her versatility and net skills ought to translate well to grass. And she is back with Kateřina Siniaková after a tournament off, and they are the faves to win doubles.
11. Daria Kasatkina
One hopes the Brits—virulently anti-Putin—acknowledge the courage of this athlete. As a tennis player, few others have more gears and options. Few players generate less power on their serve. Hard, therefore, to see her getting through seven opponents with that punchless serve.
12. Veronika Kudermetova
The Russian-est of the Russian players, it will be interesting to see what kind of a reception she receives. A player known to few casual fans who sure does a lot of winning.
13. Beatriz Haddad Maia
Brazilienne breached the perimeter of the top 10 after a swell run in Paris, the first time she went beyond R2 of a major. (Trivia: the last player to beat Naomi Osaka). Big game, big personality, and, if she’s winning on the biggest stages, there’s big potential here.
14. Belinda Bencic
A bit Rublevian. Wins a lot of matches throughout the year, but still needs to answer some questions at majors. Former WB junior champ, but that was a decade ago.
15. Ludmilla Samsonova
Surely the best player in tennis history born within the Arctic. Fine, athletic player. Only played Wimbledon once before but reached the fourth round.
16. Karolína Muchová
Coming off a run to Roland Garros the immediate consensus was this: “She can do this on clay. Why can’t she replicate on grass?” Answers were slow in coming. We’d be inclined to make her the fourth favorite after the Big Three. (And the third favorite if Rybakina is flying at half mast).
Susan Mullane/USA TODAY Sports
A look at some lower seeds:
17. Jeļena Ostapenko
Fans might chuckle at her collegiality and her hairstyles. Fans may marvel at her unfiltered remarks. But she doesn’t care. An attitude that serves her well on the court. Birmingham winner is a player to watch.
18. Karolína Plíšková
Former Week 2 player, now in the autumn of her career. But a finalist two years ago.
19. Victoria Azarenka
Two-time Major champ is still at it.
20. Donna Vekić
Berlin finalist last week. A proper player whose game comes to life on grass.
25. Madison Keys
Outside the top 25 last summer, she’s back in business, winning matches—including 5–0 in United Cup—and projecting something close to joy on the court. Still comes loaded with power. Still possesses a fearsome serve. Still only 27.
31. Mayar Sherif
There’s a new sheriff in town. Refreshed and playing top-30 ball, second seed from the Arab world.
Dark-horse corral
Elina Svitolina: Note her first foe. But showed in Paris that her top-tier tennis is there.
Mirra Andreeva: She is for real. And she breezed through qualies.
Kaia Kanepi: If only to acknowledge a player who is nearly 40 and still fearsome at Majors.
Paula Badosa: Former top-five player seems to be thriving in her off-court life.
Ali Riske-Amritraj: Hasn’t won much in 2023, but her grass-court track record is considerable.
Bianca Andreescu: 2019, sadly, feels like a long time ago. But still—under the right conditions—so much to like here.
Alizé Cornet: In her final WB, note that past conquests include Serena Williams and Świątek last year.
Venus Williams: five-time champ. Enough said.
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First-round matches to watch
- Svitolina v. Venus Williams: Can they both win?
- Pegula v. Lauren Davis: Two not dissimilar players.
- Gauff v. Sofia Kenin: One of these Americans won a major.
Upset special: If she’s still struggling with the virus, Rybakina to lose to Shelby Rogers. Otherwise Kanepi d. Kudermetova.
Doubles winners: Krejcikova and Siniakova. Faltered in Paris, but you figure that was a hiccup.
Semis:
Świątek d. Samsonova
