For the last two years the population of Wales has been living under some form of government control in an attempt to tackle the spread of coronavirus. We've been asked to avoid contact with family and friends, only venture out for essential purposes and wear face coverings in public places.
Many of us have been struck down with the virus at some point, thousands continue to live with its debilitating after-effects, and staggering numbers have died. At best it's been frustrating for people, and at worst truly life-changing.
But on Friday the Welsh Government will have a very big decision to make. At the start of this month First Minister Mark Drakeford said that if the situation remains "stable" that all legal restrictions will finally be removed on Monday, March 28. That means it will no longer be compulsory to wear face coverings in shops, on public transport, or in healthcare settings from that date and self-isolation will not be required by law.
Read more: The reasons why Covid infection rates are rising again in Wales
However, ministers will have to judge whether the situation is, in fact, stable - and it's far from clear cut. Over the past fortnight the seven-day infection rate has been rising across Welsh communities and has now reached 304.5 cases for every 100,000 people (for the week to March 13). A fortnight earlier it was just over 150 cases per 100,000.
Similarly, the latest data on lateral flow tests, for the week to March 13, also shows a sharp increase in positive tests in Wales. There were 21,212 positive test results reported in the last seven days, up substantially from 12,288 the previous week. Meanwhile the latest ONS infection survey confirmed that an estimated 125,400 people in Wales, equivalent to one in 25, had Covid in the last reported week.
It's a similar situation across the UK with England, Scotland and Northern Ireland all seeing a rise in their infection rate. Indeed, in Scotland the last legal Covid restrictions were due to end on Monday, March 21, but First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced last Tuesday the requirement to wear face coverings in shops and on public transport would remain until at least early April. Will Wales decide to follow suit? It's certainly a possibility.
Expert virologists say one of the biggest reasons for the resurgence of Covid is the emergence of a more transmissible sub-variant of Omicron, known as BA.2, which first hit Northern Ireland but has since swept across the UK, with Wales appearing to be the last to feel its impact. It is understood the infection rate in Wales will rise further before it, hopefully, starts to decline. However, BA.2 is not thought to bring about more serious illness.
Despite the doom and gloom, there are other more encouraging signs which could persuade ministers to stick with the full scrapping of legal restrictions on March 28. Firstly, at present there remain only a dozen Covid patients requiring the highest level of treatment in intensive care. This number has remained fairly static since the start of February.
Yet there has been a notable rise in the number of "confirmed" positive cases in Welsh hospitals generally. On March 17 there were 645 confirmed Covid patients, whereas in February and early March that number was around the 350 mark. Of those 645, 99 of them are being treated specifically for the virus, rather than something else. Again, that number has remain relatively static for the past month or so, proving that fewer people are needing NHS treatment for Covid.
At the start of the month the Welsh Government issued a long-term plan to transition beyond the emergency response to the pandemic. It sets out how Wales can live safely with coronavirus, just as we live with many other infectious diseases. But whether the government ploughs ahead with scrapping all legal restrictions March 28, or holds out for a few more weeks, remains to be seen. All will be revealed on Friday.
A Welsh Government spokesperson said: "Throughout the pandemic we have kept regulations under regular review, with our approach being informed by the latest available scientific and medical advice. The outcome of the current 21-day review of regulations will be confirmed on March 25."
Ahead of the announcement, Plaid Cymru's health spokesman Rhun ap Iorwerth said he was looking forward to legal restrictions being lifted and more normality returning to our lives this spring.
"However, we should be alert to the rising case numbers and the risk of key services suffering more staff shortages if the pattern continues. I would therefore like to see the government use the days leading up to the review to outline what measures they are willing to take if cases, and in particular the pressure on health and care services, do continue to rise," he said.
Welsh Conservatives health spokesman, Russell George, pointed to Wales' successful vaccination rollout which has prevented soaring levels of severe ill-health. It will now continue in earnest, with spring boosters being given to over-75s, older care home residents and individuals aged 12 years and over who are immunosuppressed
"We've had such a successful vaccination rollout programme in Wales and across the UK. Indeed when you compare us to other continental countries across Europe, vaccination rates have been extremely high," he said.
"We've also had only a small contingent of people that are refusing to take vaccinations. I think that puts us in a strong position."
