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The Conversation
Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics, UCL

Will Trump’s tariffs boost the US economy? Don’t count on it

It’s hard to keep up with all the tariff announcements coming out of Washington. On February 1, the US president, Donald Trump, announced the introduction of 25% tariffs on most imported goods from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% levy on goods from China. The tariffs against Canada and Mexico were soon postponed by a month following some token gestures.

A week after that, Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports. These tariffs are set to take effect on March 12, a few days after the broad tariffs against Canada and Mexico supposedly come to pass. Trump has now vowed “reciprocal” duties on countries that target products made in the US.

This may all sound very familiar. Trump imposed tariffs during his first presidency – for example, on steel and aluminium imports in 2018. Studies of this policy are already available. They show that the tariffs led to rising raw material costs and weakened the competitiveness of US manufacturers.

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