As the year comes to an end, the customary flow of economic outlooks is in full swing. Many outlooks are looking for something to break in the economy, yet the most obviously broken thing is the economic outlook itself.
2020 outlooks were quickly dismantled by COVID and 2022 outlooks were shredded by Russia’s war in Ukraine–but it’s not just exogenous shocks that undermine outlooks. As the economy weathered blows this year, prominent voices spoke of economic “hurricanes” or prematurely declared the U.S. in recession. However, as the year closes out, we’re looking at an economy with many strengths, even though macroeconomic headwinds remain exceptionally strong.
