In September last year, Jana Sena Party (JSP) chief Pawan Kalyan announced that his party would tie-up with N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP), to oust Y.S Jagan Mohan Reddy from the seat of power in the State.
The announcement came after the actor-turned-politician Mr. Pawan had met the TDP chief who was then under judicial remand for his alleged involvement in the Andhra Pradesh skill development scam.
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Mr. Pawan also stated that the alliance was important not only to defeat the YSR Congress party (YSRCP) but also to see that the anti-YSRCP votes do not get split.
But ever since the announcement, there has been an element of doubt if the tie-up would hold till the last minute. And if it holds, will it be able to stop the YSRCP juggernaut.
Though there are sufficient indications of anti-incumbency against the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress government, he is entrenched in the rural parts with the welfare schemes.
He is confident that these initiatives will help him secure success in the upcoming 2024 General and Assembly elections.
While the TDP-JSP alliance has been organising joint meetings and grassroots gatherings involving leaders and members, a concern for both leaders and members revolves around the issue of ‘seat-sharing’ in the upcoming elections.
Already, a few chinks in the alliance had come to the fore when TDP’s national general secretary and Mr. Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh publicly announced that Mr. Naidu will be the Chief Minister, once the alliance comes to power.
This did not go well with Mr. Pawan and his party men, as the JSP chief in all his meetings had said that the Chief Minister candidate would be decided after the combination wins the election and throws YSRCP out of power.
Mr. Pawan also found fault when TDP had unilaterally declared the MLA candidate for the Mandapeta constituency even before a seat-sharing agreement was arrived at and remarked that the TDP had violated their alliance. He (Pawan) himself then had gone ahead to say that JSP would field its candidate from Razole and Rajanagaram.
But Mr. Naidu was quick enough to douse the fire and from then on, he stuck to his statement that the candidates would be finalised only after the leaders come to a common consensus.
But seat-sharing will be a herculean task, as both parties are strongly divided on caste lines.
TDP is primarily a Kamma-based party and Mr. Pawan is looked up as a champion for the Kapu community, which has the largest vote share in the State with over about 25 per cent. The Kammas and the Kapus are known not to see ‘eye to eye’.
JSP is relatively a new party and lacks good MLA faces. While on the other hand TDP, which has been one of the strongest regional forces in the country, has no dearth of leaders.
Mr. Pawan himself had agreed that his party lacks good MLA candidates and he needs to build that base and that is why he was keen on tying up with the TDP, to see that the votes are not split. The question would be — would Mr. Naidu sacrifice one of his strong candidates to accommodate someone from the JSP and if so, how many seats can he give away.
The equation of vote sharing would be a crucial factor, which is why both parties have so far not been able to announce anything concrete on this factor.
BJP factor
Another important development that can either upset or get the cart rolling, is BJP joining the alliance.
Both Mr. Naidu and Mr. Pawan were summoned to New Delhi by Union Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah, about a week ago, to discuss the modalities of the alliance and so far nothing has been declared openly.
BJP-TDP-JSP was a winning combination in 2014 when Mr. Naidu became the Chief Minister, but will it work this time is the question as BJP is facing resentment from the State for a number of reasons such as not agreeing to the Special Category Status.
A few senior political analysts say the BJP joining the alliance may also upset the minority voters in the TDP-JSP combination. Moreover, the BJP will also demand some share of the seats, which leaves a lesser number of seats for the TDP.
With all these, the election in Andhra Pradesh looks to be heading toward a high-octane show.
