Will the RBA lift the cash rate this week to counter inflation – or wait until after the election?

RBA chief Phil Lowe has said he wants to see both inflation trends and wage growth before pulling the interest rate rise trigger. Photograph: Steven Saphore/AAP

With all the forecasting nous reputed to reside inside their HQ in Sydney’s Martin Place, you’d think the Reserve Bank’s intel gatherers should have seen this coming.

It’s been clear for months an inflation data dump would land smack in the middle of an election campaign. Nor could the RBA’s scouts have missed the LED-lit fuel prices and exploding supermarket bills warning that the March CPI would be a big one.