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Barchart
Barchart
Andrew Hecht

Will the Fed Push Bond Prices Higher?

United States US Federal Reserve Donald Trump Harris Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate

After moving to a 107-04 low in October 2023, the U.S. long bond futures recovered to a 125-30 high by late last year. The bond futures remained within that trading range through August 2024, when they broke out to the upside. The technical break could be significant, signaling higher bond prices and lower interest rates over the coming weeks and months. However, a bond market rally may not materialize, given several very bearish factors. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF product (TLT) tracks long-term U.S. interest rates, moving lower when rates rise and higher when they decline.

A technical move favors the upsideThe long bond futures were in a bearish trend, making lower highs and lower lows from March 2020 through the October 2023 low. 

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