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Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

Will the Australian dollar keep rising in 2026? 3 factors to watch in the new year

United States Australian Dollar Australia RBA Donald Trump iron ore US Dollar Interest Rates the Federal Reserve The Reserve Bank of Australia

After several years of steadily declining, the Australian dollar staged a meaningful recovery in 2025, culminating in a two-cent rally over the past month.

Since the start of the year, the value of the Australian dollar has risen by more than 6% against the US dollar, reversing a sizeable chunk of the falls that occurred through 2022–24.

But is the most recent jump the start of a new trend for 2026? Or just another blip?

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