AUSTIN, Texas — Greg Abbott’s tenure as Texas governor has been highlighted by crises.
Since he took office in 2015, he’s had to tackle the coronavirus pandemic, the 2021 winter storm that killed 246 people, several mass shootings, including the Uvalde massacre, and other emergencies complicated by political polarization.
“Right now his legacy is going to be that he’s a tested governor,” said state Rep. Matt Shaheen, R-Plano. “He has gone through significant disasters, pandemics, tragic shootings and all sorts of things. He’s come out stronger from it, and the state of Texas has come out stronger from all those challenges.”
But Abbott wants to be known as more than a crisis governor.
After he takes his oath of office Tuesday for a record-tying third four-year term, he’ll offer his vision for Texas over the next four years and beyond. His inaugural speech is expected to focus on keeping Texas an economic powerhouse, while reducing the property tax burden for residents.
He’ll also discuss empowering parents to have a say in their children’s education. And he’ll pledge to confront district attorneys from urban counties that he’s labeled as rogue for implementing progressive criminal justice policies, such as not prosecuting some low-level crimes.
“He’s going to be focused on the things he talked about last year, like real property tax reform, parental rights, including enabling parents to have a say in their child’s education,” said Abbott’s chief political strategist Dave Carney during an interview last week with The Dallas Morning News.
“He’ll also deal with the ongoing crisis with the border and other things like fentanyl poisonings. And he’s dealing with the easy bail problem that we have in some of the bigger counties and bigger cities.”
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick will also be inaugurated for a third term.
Unlike the start of his first two terms, Abbott isn’t saddled with an immediate crisis. And lawmakers have a near $33 billion surplus, which the governor calls a “generational opportunity.”
“We are blessed with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to put our state on a course of unassailable excellence for generations to come,” he said last week as he addressed the Texas House.
Carney said figuring out how to use the surplus will be challenging.
“Everyone has a $32 billion spending plan and they aren’t always the same,” he said. “But it’s a good problem to have and it does give us the opportunity to really think creatively outside the box about how to do it in a way that doesn’t squander it.”
While Abbott has been easily elected governor three times, Democrats have a different view of his accomplishments. And they want the longtime governor to focus on nagging deficiencies, like improving access to health care, where Texas ranks near the bottom.
“I expect to hear pretty much what he talked about during his campaign, but we need more,” said state Sen. Royce West, D-Dallas. “He probably won’t address it, but we still need to expand Medicaid in the state of Texas.
“I want to also hear about what he is planning to do in terms of school safety. He’s got to deal with the issues concerning the grid, because the increased Texas population requires more energy.”
Democratic Party consultant Colin Strother predicted Abbott will not offer dramatic policy proposals.
“He’s based his entire career on inertia, and most of us are expecting him to double down on that and not break any new ground,” he said. “You won’t hear him talk about fixing some of the problems with education funding and infrastructure that we’ve been dealing with for the past 35 years.”
Strother said Abbott is looking beyond the legislative session and perhaps at a run for president.
“From a political standpoint, it doesn’t make sense for Abbott to take big swings,” he said. “What makes sense is for Abbott to look both ways, cross this road and very carefully and deliberately maintain his position and his trajectory for the Republican presidential primary.”
When asked if Abbott was thinking about his legacy, Carney said: “No.
“That will be in the fourth term,” he said with a chuckle.
Past inaugural speeches
Elected governor after stints as attorney general and a Supreme Court justice, Abbott is one of the most accomplished politicians in Texas history.
But with all his electoral success, he hasn’t developed bold or brash policy agendas, analysts say.
In 2015, after beating former state Sen. Wendy Davis by 20 percentage points, Abbott promised to work on issues related to transportation, water and education.
“As great as Texas is, there’s more we must do,” he said. “More for the families stuck in traffic. More for parched towns thirsty for water. More for parents who fear their child is falling behind in school. More for employers searching for skilled workers. More for our veterans who return broken from battle.”
He also promised to “do more for the millions of Texans who are tired of seeing our state sovereignty and the rule of law ignored by a federal government that refuses to secure our border.”
In his 2019 inaugural address, Abbott again insisted Texas leaders redouble their efforts to move the state forward.
“We can do more to educate the next generation and keep them safe at school,” he said. “More to advance our universities to meet the changes sweeping the 21st century. More to rein in the property tax burden on our citizens.”
Many of those issues remain priorities for Abbott, though Carney, his consultant, says a lot has been accomplished in eight years, including “more than doubling the Tier One research institutions in Texas,” one of his early goals. Carney said under Abbott’s watch there’s been more funding for highway transportation, teacher pay raises and more money for public education, though Democrats say much more is needed on those fronts.
“Texas has one of the highest graduation rates in the country for high school, and there’s a lot of things he’s done,” Carney said. “There’s a lot of things he’s done that will be legacy-type things, but we’ve never had a conversation about that. He’s focused on what’s on the minds of Texans and what he’s going to do for them this session.”
But Democrats say Abbott should address not only Medicaid expansion, but expanding gambling and medical marijuana use. Abbott is open to more gambling, as is House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont.
“Independent observers are going to be watching and waiting to see if he puts out any olive branches towards those two big issues,” Strother said.
Shaheen, the Plano lawmaker, is bullish on Texas.
“We just have such an exciting future as a state,” Shaheen said. “We’re developing the next generation and the next workforce. We have close to a $33 billion surplus. California has a deficit. Our future’s bright.”
Presidential run?
Abbott’s third inaugural address occurs as he’s become a national figure, particularly with his border security policy that’s included busing migrants to cities with Democratic Party leadership, including Washington, D.C., New York and Chicago.
And he’s a Texas governor, which almost automatically puts him in the conversation for the 2024 presidential election. The last two Texas governors — Rick Perry and George W. Bush — ran for president. Bush was elected in 2000, while Perry lost presidential bids in 2012 and 2016.
Former President Donald Trump has already announced another run for the White House. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, now a darling of national conservatives, would be considered a front-runner if he joined the GOP presidential primary. The potentially large field could include former Vice President Mike Pence, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
“In the Texas Constitution somewhere, there’s something that says if you’re governor, you have to be considered in the presidential sweepstakes,” Carney joked.
He said Abbott has been invited to events in early presidential contest states, but continues to politely send regrets.
“He doesn’t want any distractions,” said Carney, who did not rule out Abbott exploring 2024 presidential campaign options after the legislative session. “He’s focused on the legislative session.”
Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo, who worked on the presidential campaigns of Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, said Abbott is not yet mentioned as a serious presidential contender.
“I am a little surprised that he does not get mentioned in the presidential sweepstakes,” he said. “He’s definitely not a rock star politician and maybe that is by choice, so he’s really not in that conversation.”
Minchillo said he expected Abbott to enjoy having a term without an immediate crisis or threats of a primary campaign from rivals to his right.
Rumors that Patrick would challenge Abbott during a GOP primary never became fact. The governor’s 2022 reelection bid did receive GOP opposition from former state Sen. Don Huffines of Dallas and former Texas Republican Party Chairman Allen West. Abbott easily won the GOP primary and went on to beat Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the general election.
“He doesn’t have the specter of Dan Patrick breathing down his neck threatening to primary him,” Minchillo said. “That’s kind of gone. Now he can really run his own game. I expect to hear a lot about bread-and-butter issues. I expect to hear a lot about property taxes, and a lot about immigration.”
Minchillo said Abbott’s inaugural speech is not a prelude to national politics, but Texas history. If Abbott wins another term, he’ll have the chance of being the longest serving governor in Texas history. Perry holds the record with 14 years as governor.
“Unless there’s some incredible change, I expect for him to run one more time,” he said.
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