WASHINGTON — California Democrats facing close races could get an important political boost from Friday’s Supreme Court decision reversing its half-century-old ruling that women have a constitutional right to an abortion.
The court’s upending of Roe v. Wade “could give Democrats some help in shoring up their base in certain places, such as in some of the Biden-won districts in California that they are defending and targeting,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political analysis organization.
In the state’s 10 most competitive House districts, as defined by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, 59% of all likely voters said they wanted the landmark 1973 abortion rights ruling kept in place while 15% said they wanted it overturned, according to a May 12-22 Public Policy Institute of California poll.
Democrats in those and other districts are painting widespread GOP support for the new ruling as fresh evidence of how Republicans are eager to radically change the way Americans live their lives.
In the new 3rd Congressional District, which stretches from Placer County through the Sacramento suburbs and south to Inyo County, the campaign for Democratic congressional nominee Kermit Jones saw the ruling as more evidence of Republican extremism.
“We have no doubt that the out-of-touch position of Kevin Kiley and other far-right Republicans who want to criminalize all abortions will be an important issue for voters in district,” said Michaela Kurinsky-Malos, campaign manager for Democratic congressional nominee Kermit Jones.
Kiley, a Rocklin assemblyman, is the Republican nominee for the seat, which the Crystal Ball and two other nonpartisan analyst ratings tag “likely Republican.”
Asked about the ruling’s impact, Kiley consultant Dave Gilliard said, “Voters in the 3rd District are laser-focused on inflation, gas prices and the economy.”
Polling both in California and nationwide suggest the abortion ruling is not expected to spark the sort of Democratic wave that would push back the apparent Republican march to control of the House next year. The GOP needs a net gain of four House seats to claim the majority.
The PPIC poll found 27% of Californians cited jobs and inflation as their top concern. Housing costs were second at 12%, followed by homelessness at 11%.
The results suggest abortion is unlikely to be much of a factor in less competitive races.
“I’m not sure it will have much political impact here in California. It could get a few more Democrats to the polls, but I don’t seeing it having much impact on statewide races,” said Wesley Hussey, professor of political science at California State University, Sacramento.
Where the ruling could matter most in California are the handful of congressional districts regarded as highly competitive.
Motivated Democrats could make a difference in close races. Among them is the 22nd District contest in the Central Valley between Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas. Biden easily won the district in 2020.
Also on the tossup lists are the 27th, now held by Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, who won by 333 votes two years ago, and the 45th, held by Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach. Biden narrowly won her district in 2020.
But abortion’s impact in stronger Republican areas appears minimal.
In the new 5th District, which extends from the Fresno area to the Sacramento region, Republican Tom McClintock is already a heavy favorite to win an eighth term.
His camp did not see abortion as a major issue.
“It’s clear that voters are far more concerned about the out of control inflation, ever-rising gas prices and unchecked illegal immigration that Joe Biden’s policies have caused. We’re confident that will not change,” said McClintock consultant Chris Baker.
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