In the coming days, Suella Braverman plans to release a “grid of shit” to dominate the news agenda which, according to her allies, includes a physical copy of the document that details her secret deal with Rishi Sunak in exchange for backing him as Tory leader.
She has already left No 10 in no doubt she intends to be a thorn in the prime minister’s side after her sacking as home secretary. A brutal letter to Sunak on Tuesday was followed by a call on Wednesday for emergency legislation to block off legal challenges to his Rwanda plan.
Her calls were echoed by the Tory right, angry that the flagship “stop the boats” policy has been left in tatters by the supreme court and by the party’s shift to the centre – the latter confirmed in their minds by Braverman’s departure and the return of David Cameron to frontline politics.
After the supreme court defeat, Sunak at first appeared to be giving the right some of what they had asked for, announcing he would bring in emergency legislation to confirm that Rwanda is a safe country for asylum seekers deported from the UK.
The prime minister then went even further, telling a Downing Street press conference that he was prepared to defy any judgment from the European court of human rights in Strasbourg if there were further attempts to stop Rwanda flights from going ahead.
Sunak said: “My patience has run thin, as indeed I think the country’s patience has run thin.”
Yet what he in fact announced was the “Boris Johnson plan” – a proposal bashed out on the former prime minister’s computer for a Daily Mail column in June to get round the legal objections by just designating Rwanda a safe country.
The right of Sunak’s party wants him instead to bring in emergency legislation to overrule the supreme court’s judgment on the Rwanda plan. Some even suggested he should just ignore it entirely, with Lee Anderson, the party’s deputy chair, calling on the government to “just put the planes in the air now”.
Others have indicated that Sunak’s position could be under threat. Simon Clarke, a former cabinet minister and ally of Liz Truss, said it could be a “confidence issue”. Andrea Jenkyns, a rebel backbencher, said six more Tory MPs may join her in submitting letters of no confidence.
No 10 advisers believe that while the right flank of the party might shout the loudest, it does not have the numbers to do anything that puts Sunak’s position in peril. “Suella and whose army?” asked one.
They also believe that much of the right will be “bought off” by the prime minister’s plan B, although they acknowledge that parliament and the courts could cause it more problems.
There is some relief inside government that Nigel Farage, who pushed the issue of small boat crossings up the political agenda with his video clips from the white cliffs of Dover, is in the Australian jungle filming I’m A Celebrity. It may be short-lived as the series beams into the nation’s living rooms from this Sunday.
Sunak’s plan B involves a new treaty with Rwanda to meet concerns over institutional issues in its asylum system. Yet the treaty alone will take weeks to make its way through parliament, and the emergency legislation will almost certainly face more challenges in the courts.
While the right may applaud it, the moderate wing of the party is less than enthusiastic about the Rwanda policy, especially the suggestion from Sunak that he is prepared to “do what is necessary” to enforce it, which is code for a willingness to consider withdrawing from the European convention on human rights.
James Cleverly suggested on Wednesday that there was not currently the appetite in government to overhaul domestic law or international obligations. “We are not going to put forward proposals simply to manufacture an unnecessary row for short-term political gain,” he told MPs.
His shadow, Yvette Cooper, told the Commons that the new home secretary had in private referred to the Rwanda plan as “batshit”. He looked down at his notes, avoiding her gaze. It would not be surprising if others in the cabinet, notably David Cameron or Jeremy Hunt, shared this view.
In his year as prime minister, Sunak has more often than not pitched to the right of his party – on culture war issues, the green agenda and now, once again, on immigration. After a week that began with a move back to the centre for the party, he is now once again moving rightwards.
Braverman and her allies may not pose an immediate danger, but even outside Westminster it is clear to voters that the Tory party is once again in self-destruct mode, with the Rwanda policy a shambles and the prime minister lurching back and forth for a plan.
Sunak’s refusal on Wednesday to guarantee that flights to Rwanda would take off before the next election – despite his tough-sounding promises – will do little to convince the public otherwise.
