Why is Spain holding a snap general election this month?
Spain was due to go to the polls in November, four years after the last general election. But its socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, surprised everyone in May by calling an early election for 23 July, after his party’s poor showing in local and regional polls. Faced with a resurgent opposition conservative People’s party (PP) that exceeded expectations in those elections – and which is firmly ahead in the opinion polls – Sánchez brought forward the election in the hope of mobilising leftwing voters and avoiding months of wear and tear to his coalition minority government.
How has Sánchez’s administration fared over the past four years?
When Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers party (PSOE) reached a government agreement with the far-left anti-austerity Unidas Podemos alliance in January 2020, Spain got its first coalition government in 80 years. The coalition would hail its major achievements as the relatively good state of the economy, its labour reforms, the introduction of menstrual leave and the updating of abortion legislation, a euthanasia law and a minimum basic income scheme.
It has brought in a democratic memory law intended to give “justice, reparation and dignity” to the victims of the civil war and the subsequent Francisco Franco dictatorship, and done much to calm the issue of Catalan independence. The alliance has also weathered the Covid pandemic and the effects of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Spain’s inflation rate is now just 1.9%.
There have, however, been persistent personal and ideological tensions between the centrist PSOE and the more radical Unidas Podemos, most notably over the latter’s botched sexual consent legislation, under which more than 100 sex offenders were inadvertently released from jail.
How do opposition parties view the government and its track record?
Less than fondly. Both the PP and the far-right Vox party regularly attack the government for its reliance on the votes of Catalan and Basque pro-independence parties in congress. They accuse Sánchez of being craven in his dealings with the Catalan independence movement and were bitterly opposed to his decision to grant pardons to nine Catalan leaders for their roles in the illegal, failed push for regional secession six years ago. The PP also frequently deplores a style of government it calls sanchismo, which it views as cynical, opportunistic and fixated on retaining power.
What is at stake on 23 July?
Put bluntly, the election will determine whether Spain succumbs further to the far-right drift experienced by so many other European countries. The poll is a choice between a leftwing and a rightwing coalition: the PSOE and the new leftwing Sumar alliance on one hand; the PP and Vox on the other. Although the PP is leading the polls, it is not expected to win an absolute majority, meaning it will need to rely on Vox’s support to govern.
While the PP’s leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has tried hard to emphasise his party’s moderate credentials, it has repeatedly shown a willingness to form coalitions with Vox, as it has in the regions of Castilla y León, Valencia and Extremadura. Sánchez is hoping that the prospect of a far-right party entering government for the first time since Spain’s return to democracy, after the death of the dictator Franco in 1975, will galvanise leftwing Spaniards to vote in droves.
What are the big issues?
As elsewhere, the cost of living crisis is a daily reality for Spaniards. A Bank of Spain report published last week found that 9% of Spanish households could not pay their bills last year because of rising costs and interest rates. A recent Ipsos poll for La Vanguardia found that the economy was the single biggest issue for voters, with 31% of those surveyed putting it at the top of their list. Then came unemployment (10%) and healthcare (9%). Immigration, one of Vox’s favourite talking points, was the most important issue for just 2% of those polled.
Which parties are taking part in the election?
Although the PSOE, the PP and Vox are the biggest hitters in the election, much attention had been focused on Sumar, the new leftwing alliance led by Spain’s popular labour minister, Yolanda Díaz. Support for Podemos, once touted as a party that would eclipse the PSOE, has ebbed away in recent years, and it performed disastrously in the May elections. It has reluctantly agreed to join Sumar but there is bad blood between some in the party’s old high command and the new outfit.
Notably absent from this general election is the centre-right Ciudadanos party, which was seen as a possible party of government until a disastrous lurch to the right cost it dearly five years ago. It did so abysmally in the recent regional and local elections it is not running in the general election – good news for the PP.
What is likely to happen on 23 July?
Despite the PP’s lead, Sánchez’s gamble appears to be paying off and the socialists are beginning to rally in the polls. Much will depend on turnout and on what Vox demands in return for helping the PP into government. While the far-right party’s seat count may fall, it may very well achieve its mission of helping to govern Spain.
The consulting and strategy company Teneo calculates there is a 60% chance of a PP-led government, a 30% chance of a PSOE-led government, and a 10% chance of another election if no agreement is reached on a new administration (Spain held four general elections between December 2015 and November 2019).
