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ALLISON GATLIN

Will Novavax's Covid Booster Thesis Play Out? What The Survey Says

Novavax's Covid booster is preemptively gaining steam, according to the July IBD/TIPP Poll. The results come as NVAX stock climbs.

The company is among a cadre working on boosters that will target multiple strains of the Covid virus. By October, the Food and Drug Administration hopes to launch a fresh round of boosters targeting the original virus, plus two omicron sub-variants dubbed B.A.4 and B.A.5.

In the July poll, 57% of people who had heard of Novavax said they would likely get its booster. It would likely compete against boosters from Pfizer with partner BioNTech and Moderna. Their shots use messenger RNA technology, while Novavax uses an older protein-based platform.

Shares of NVAX stock recently touched a three-month high, along with other vaccine stocks. On today's stock market, NVAX stock jumped 3.9% to 69.76.

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NVAX Stock: Will Its Booster Gain FDA Nod?

It's important to note, none of the new boosters are authorized. In fact, the companies still need to develop them.

All three major players — Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax — tested boosters that target the ancestral Covid strain and the earlier B.A.1 sub-variant of omicron. But the newer B.A.4 and B.A.5 omicron sub-variants won out in the dominance battle. The latter is particularly contagious.

Despite this, Novavax said its prototype booster generated antibodies capable of protecting against the B.A.1, B.A.2 and B.A.5 sub-variants. The news is promising for its next potential booster, which will aim to fend off B.A.4 and B.A.5.

The July poll indicates Novavax could gain a sizable share of the booster market, if the company can get its name out there. Just 28% of those surveyed have heard of the company. That hasn't changed from the June poll.

Novavax is a much smaller company than its chief rivals, though NVAX stock has followed the same trend lines as Pfizer and Moderna stocks. Novavax has a market cap of $5.4 billion, compared to Pfizer's $297.4 billion value and Moderna's $71.2 billion.

Most Vaccine Holdouts Are Unattainable

Of those who had heard of Novavax in July, 57% said they would get its booster. That's up from the June number when just 46% said they would get Novavax's shot — either its primary series or its booster.

But Novavax could still struggle, like Pfizer and Moderna, to get many vaccine holdouts. Roughly one-quarter of respondents in July had heard of Novavax. Of that group, less than one in five said they would get Novavax's primary series. More than three-quarters, 78%, said they wouldn't.

That's not out of expectations, however. With Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson on the U.S. market, just north of 71% of people age 5 and older are fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

On Monday, the Department of Defense signed a deal for an initial 3.2 million doses of Novavax's shot, should it be authorized. But NVAX stock fell by a double-digit percentage, according to MarketSmith.com.

Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.

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