Great Britain has secured enough new offshore wind to power 12m homes after the most competitive – and financially generous – subsidy auction on record.
The competition to secure renewable energy support contracts was considered a crucial test of the government’s pro-growth agenda and its ambition to achieve a clean power system by 2030.
In response, Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, said the “historic auction” had proved the government’s doubters wrong. The biggest single procurement of offshore wind in the UK and mainland Europe would now bring forward investment of £22bn into the sector and create 7,000 new jobs, he added.
Here we look at how the renewable energy auction promises to help the British government meet its clean energy targets.
What is a renewables subsidy auction?
The UK pioneered the “contracts for difference” scheme, which supports new renewable electricity projects via a “reverse auction” in which the lowest bids win.
This helps to incentivise the multibillion-pound upfront costs of investing in low-carbon energy, such as solar, wind and nuclear power projects. It also helps to ensure that only those schemes that offer the best value for money receive support at the lowest cost to consumers.
The latest auction is the seventh of its kind to be held in the UK in the last 11 years, and the format has been replicated elsewhere in Europe and globally.
How does the auction work?
Over the summer, clean energy developers submitted closed bids indicating the lowest price they could accept for each megawatt of electricity produced by their project.
About 25 offshore wind projects were eligible to bid in the latest auction – the equivalent of more than 24 gigawatts (GW) of electricity capacity, or enough to power 20m homes when the windfarms are running at their full potential. In the end, funding was awarded to 8.4GW of offshore wind capacity.
The Low Carbon Contracts Company administers the scheme for the government and awards contracts to the best bids.
If the market price for electricity is below the “strike price” set in the support contract, a levy on household energy bills is used to top up the payments received by developers. If the wholesale market price soars above the strike price, developers are contractually bound to pay back the difference to consumers.
Initially these contracts guaranteed revenues for 15 years but in the latest auction the government offered 20-year contracts in the hope that developers would submit lower bids in exchange for a longer period of support.
Why did this auction matter?
It was considered the last realistic chance for Labour to meet the clean energy targets it set out ahead of its election victory.
The party promised to lower energy bills by creating a virtually carbon-free electricity system by 2030. To do this it plans to double Britain’s onshore wind power, triple its solar power and quadruple its offshore wind power capacity. The plan to become a “clean energy superpower” relies heavily on the government’s particularly ambitious offshore wind targets at a time when the industry has faced rising costs.
Currently the UK has about 27.6GW of offshore wind capacity either in operation, under construction or which holds a government contract – enough to power the equivalent of over 27m homes when running at full capacity. The government would need to add at least 16GW of offshore wind over the next two years to reach its offshore wind target of between 43GW to 50GW.
The government is under pressure to bring forward investment in energy infrastructure, with half the existing gas and nuclear capacity expected to be retired by 2035 and demand for electricity forecast to double by 2050.
Will the contracts mean cheaper energy and lower bills?
The government believes so. Official figures show that electricity generated by the latest generation of offshore windfarms will be 40% less expensive than the power produced by a new gas-fired power plant.
In official figures published on Wednesday, the government said the cost of building and operating a new gas-fired power station was £147 per megawatt hour, while the auction price for offshore wind was £90.91 per megawatt hour on average.
Industry experts said before the auction that if the government could bring forward investment in renewable energy at a level below £94-£95/MWh in 2024 prices then it would meet its targets at no extra cost to consumers. In the end, the contracts were awarded at £89.49-£91.20/MWh.
The current market price for electricity bought in advance is about £74/MWh, suggesting bill-payers would have to offer top-ups to developers to match the strike price if they began operating today. However, analysis by Aurora Energy Research and the consultancy Baringa found that an increase in renewable energy today would lower the future wholesale price – more than offsetting the impact of higher levies to support renewable energy and “keeping household energy bills effectively neutral through to 2035”.
However, there are still some threats to energy bills. The cost of connecting these giant windfarms to the UK’s National Grid and transporting the electricity to areas of high energy demand is paid through bills and is expected to rise in the years ahead.
If the construction of these transmission projects does not keep pace with the build-out of renewables it raises the risk that turbines will be paid to turn off if there is not enough grid capacity to carry the electricity, which would also be paid for through bills.
So will the government meet its clean energy targets?
The auction results will keep the government’s progress towards its 2030 offshore wind target on track – but it will still need to procure another 8GW of offshore wind in next year’s auction to hit its goal of growing the country’s offshore wind capacity to 43-50GW by the end of the decade.
Although it is technically feasible for projects that are successful next year to build their projects in time to begin generating power for the UK by 2030, industry insiders have expressed concern that the “practical realities of construction and supply chains” could mean that future projects struggle to meet the government’s timeline.
The pressure will be on the industry to keep producing record-breaking investments in the years ahead – and at a cost that provides value for money to consumers, too.
Would a Reform UK government threaten these plans?
Before the auction, Reform said it would cancel all renewable energy contracts if it came to power in the 2029 election. Nigel Farage’s party wrote directly to energy companies and claimed there was “no public mandate for the real-world consequences” of the clean power agenda and that all subsidies would be scrapped.
The threat raised eyebrows within the renewable energy industry but is not thought to have reduced the appetite for contracts in the latest auction. Developers are understood to be confident that the legal safeguards built into the private company contracts would be enough to prevent a Reform government from scrapping the scheme. Industry insiders believe it is more likely that the party would take aim at older subsidy regimes, such as the renewables obligation, used by existing projects.
