WASHINGTON — California is poised to become a crucial battleground for control of the U.S. House next year, thanks to new redistricting maps that help Democrats and push Republicans into tough, competitive races.
David Wasserman, an editor for the nonpartisan election-tracker Cook Political Report, told The Sacramento Bee that California “bucks the trend in most other states, which is anti-competitive.”
Republicans need a net gain of five seats to win control of the House, and while the GOP sees political tailwinds in its direction nationwide, it has to play defense in California.
“We’re going to see a number of competitive races in California, not just in 2022 but beyond,” Wasserman said.
Some lawmakers quickly seized the opportunity as the process came to a close announce their plans to run for reelection, including Democratic Reps. Doris Matsui, who will run for reelection in the district around downtown Sacramento. Others made plans to retire, such as Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard, D-Los Angeles, who will not run again in 2022.
The districts will not only impact who represents California in Congress, but also whether Democrats or Republicans take control of the United States House of Representatives in 2022.
While the new legislative map appears to favor Democrats in the short-term, political experts caution that other factors will be more important to determining which party primarily prevails. Historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats in midterm elections.
But battleground districts that Democratic Reps. Josh Harder and Ami Bera have held onto gained more Democratic voters in new maps, suggesting they might have better odds in 2022.
The maps sit for public review over the next few days, going to California’s secretary of state to be certified no later than Dec. 27, meaning that they are all but set in stone.
The final map is less competitive than earlier drafts, ultimately giving the Democrats the upper hand, Wasserman said. In a good year for Republicans, California could send as many as 11 Republicans to the House — the same number the state has now. In a good year for Democrats, California would only send five GOP representatives.
GOP needs to hold line in California
Unlike other states, California Republican incumbents won multiple districts that also voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. As a result, experts were closely eyeing California before redistricting, the process by which legislative districts are reshaped, even began.
California lost a seat in the House following sluggish population growth, dropping its delegation to 52 lawmakers. Maps seem to have absorbed that in a Democratic seat around Los Angeles.
The current chamber is split 221-213, Democrats to Republicans. The GOP needs five seats to gain a majority in the House, so holding onto its ground in California is crucial.
Nationwide, there are nine districts that Biden and a Republican congressional candidate won in 2020. Four were in California:
— Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford. He won by 0.9%. Biden won by 10.9%.
— Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita. He won by 0.1%. Biden won by 10.1%.
— Rep. Young Kim, R-Fullerton. She won by 1.2%. Biden won by 10.1%.
— Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach. She won by 2.1%. Biden won by 1.5%.
With new lines, The Cook Political Report predicted that support for Biden would diminish by eight percentage points in Kim’s new district, suggesting it would be more Republican.
But support for Biden would bolster by a couple of percentage points in what experts predict would be new districts for Valadao, Garcia and Steel. The Cook Political report rates those three races as toss-ups.
Matt Rexroad, a Republican campaign consultant, told The Bee that seats near Orange County — Kim, Steel and Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine — would likely shift more Republican in the long run as demographics in the wealthy Southern California enclave shift.
“Everyone says whether they’re going down for Republicans, and I do acknowledge that President Trump didn’t do well there two years ago, but I think those are seats that will stay in play and be competitive for the whole decade,” he said.
Republican Reps. Tom McClintock and Ken Calvert also saw Biden gains in their supposed new districts, dipping several percentage points to a 2% and 1% margin of victory for Trump in 2020 respectively.
Candidates do not have to run in the districts that they live in. Incumbents could take their campaigns elsewhere.
The other Biden/GOP seats are in New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Nebraska and Florida. The Texas seat, now represented by Rep. Beth Van Duyne, has been redrawn and has more Republicans. Biden won the district by 5.4% and Van Duyne won by 1.3%.
Republicans might see more openings in a recent wave of 23 House Democrats who announced they will not run again in 2022 elections. California Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Tulare, will step aside early to lead former President Donald Trump’s social media venture.
California Democrats can’t rest on the maps
Also watched closely are California races where Democrats barely won. Without Biden on the ticket, those historically become tighter.
That, coupled with the impending gubernatorial election and shifting demographics in the San Joaquin Valley, might boost Republican support in California in the short run, said Rexroad.
“They’re making seats the Republicans can win in 2022, but they may not be able to win in 2024,” he said.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan analysis firm, told The Bee that Democrats “very well may need more out of California than what they have because of likely redistricting-induced losses in some Republican-controlled states.”
Some vulnerable House Democrats’ districts either got bluer or stayed the same. The proposed district for Harder, D-Turlock, went from barely carrying Biden in 2020 to voting for him with an 11% margin of victory.
Bera, D-Elk Grove, also saw more support for Biden in his new proposed district. And Porter, who is still considered one of California’s most vulnerable incumbents, saw no net change in support for Biden versus Trump in 2020.
The GOP is not intimidated. California Republican Party Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson issued a statement minutes after commissioners voted to pass the maps that it would “be tough running in 2022 with a D behind your name.”
“Voters are fed up with California Democrats’ failed policies that are responsible for surging crime, sky-high unemployment, soaring inflation and a homelessness crisis,” she said.
One non-factor, said Jacob Rubashkin, analyst for Inside Elections, a nonpartisan organization that studies congressional races: The September effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. Rubashkin saw that providing no momentum for either party.
“It feels like ancient history. So much has changed,” Rubashkin said.
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