SACRAMENTO, Calif. — California voters could determine who controls the U.S. House next year, and Tuesday’s primary offered strong clues as to what matters to them — crime, the economy and maybe Donald Trump.
Republicans need a net gain of five seats nationwide to run the House for the next two years, and their prospects are bright throughout the country. But not in California, where at least four GOP incumbents face tough races.
Here are some takeaways that suggest what’s likely in the summer and fall campaigns.
Forget ideology. Stop crime, period
Tuesday’s election vividly illustrated the power of the crime issue.
San Francisco’s voters sent a message that is likely to resonate across the country — and Republicans will make sure it does.
The city known for its liberal politics easily ousted District Attorney Chesa Boudin, as voters signaled they were fed up with policies that many said were too easy on offenders.
Republicans have been eyeing the crime issue for months. Tuesday, the State Government Leadership Foundation, which has GOP ties, began running an ad in six swing states.
“Supporting America’s law enforcement has never been a debate. But liberals have quit on our cops, and put criminals first, bowing to the mob while our communities suffer the consequences,” the ad says.
Trump’s shadow lurks
Former President Donald Trump endorsed eight California Republicans — five of them two days before the primary. They were all expected to win easily Tuesday, and they did.
His riskiest move was in the 3rd Congressional District, where on May 14 he gave a rousing endorsement of Kevin Kiley, the Rocklin assemblyman. Kiley was seen as locked in a tight race with Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones, a Republican, and Democrat Kermit Jones. But Scott Jones placed a distant third.
While Trump didn’t campaign for Kiley, and there’s no evidence he helped send much money his way, his support in a district he won in 2020 gave the state lawmaker an important edge. Kiley and Kermit Jones won the two spots on the November ballot.
Trump didn’t endorse four in swing districts with Republican incumbents who are not seen as diehard loyalists. Two of them, Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Young Kim, R-Fullerton, were running behind Democratic challengers..
Can Democrats stop GOP momentum?
California should be a firewall for the Democratic party, a state President Joe Biden won with 63% in 2020. Forty-two of 52 current incumbent House members, the governor and both U.S. senators are Democrats.
There were signs Tuesday that seats in swing districts Republicans are banking on winning won’t be easy targets. In the San Joaquin Valley, Democrat Rudy Salas was leading Valadao, one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last year.
In the Los Angeles area, Democrat Jay Chen was ahead of GOP incumbent Michelle Steel. Democrat Asif Mahmood was in a tight contest with Kim. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, is expected to get a close race from Democrat Christy Smith.
Kermit Jones’ strong showing is likely to boost his already strong national support from Democrats. He’s raised $1.27 million so far and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is calling the 3rd a “district in play,” one of 40 such seats nationwide now open or held by Republicans.
If Jones appears poised to win, the party is expected to help him with fundraising and other support.
Democrats have an enthusiasm problem
Even in deep blue California, Democrats seemed unexcited about the election. Turnout Tuesday was dismal, signaling little enthusiasm and some unhappiness with national party leaders.
President Joe Biden’s approval rating in the state, 66% a year ago, was 50% in the May Public Policy Institute of California poll. Approval of the Democratic-led Congress was at 32%.
Kermit Jones’ nine-paragraph statement Tuesday night did not mention that he was a Democrat.
“This campaign started because I could no longer sit on the sidelines at a time when we need leaders who will put partisanship aside and step up and serve this community,” he said.
He told The Sacramento Bee earlier he won’t commit to supporting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, for another term as House Democratic leader.
Uneasiness about the economy is a big deal
Voters worried about their financial futures historically blame incumbents. Tuesday’s voting showed Democrats could feel the brunt of that wrath.
The PPIC poll found that 15% of Californians said they were better off financially than a year ago, while 37% said things were worse. Many of the most worried were Republicans — 60% — and independents, 39%.
Republicans have hammered Democrats on the state of the economy.
“Voters are sick and tired of the Democrats’ failed one-party rule in Washington and Sacramento that has led to surging crime, sky-high gas prices, failing schools, a homeless crisis and more,” said California GOP Chair Jessica Millan Patterson Tuesday night.
Kiley has made his so-far unsuccessful effort to suspend the state’s gasoline tax — which he’s championing in the state Assembly — an important part of his campaign.
Kermit Jones doesn’t place any blame on politicians, but vowed he’ll “fight to make big corporations pay taxes to support the economy and country, while working to level the playing field for small businesses, so that we can invest in our communities.”
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