New Delhi: Will India also see another surge in Covid-19 cases? This question is exercising the minds of many people with reports of the viral infection re-emerging in Hong Kong, parts of China, South Korea and some European countries. According to media reports, Hong Kong is seeing an unprecedented number of Covid deaths.
However, top doctors in India say the possibility of a similar resurgence of Covid infection in the country anytime soon is remote. India has already witnessed three massive waves of Covid since January 2020, when the first case was detected in Kerala. At present, the daily cases have reduced to around 3,100 at a positivity rate of below 1%.
"In Hong Kong, the vaccination rate is not good enough. This probably explains the rise in cases and the lethality of the ongoing wave," surmised Dr N K Mehra, immunologist and former dean of AIIMS. He told TOI that India was better placed to avoid another wave for two reasons. First, because a majority of Indians had been exposed to the virus and received natural immunity. Secondly, Mehra said, nearly all adults and a significant number of children aged 15 years and above had been vaccinated.
About China, immunologists opined that the numbers available suggested the daily cases weren't actually too high though that country had decided to impose a lockdown in some areas under its zero-Covid policy.
In Europe, the current surge, according to WHO, is caused by the Omicron variant or its sub-variant. Dr K Srinath Reddy, president, Public Health Foundation of India, said the Indian population had already been exposed to this variant in the third wave. "Because of this, I don't see a possibility of another Covid wave hitting India soon," Reddy said emphatically. He, however, advised caution. "People should adopt Covid-appropriate behaviour, especially when in public places. One should wear a mask and maintain a physical distance in crowded places," Reddy said.
India plans to remove all international travel restrictions from March 27. "Two years of dealing with the pandemic has shown us that travel restrictions can delay the spread of the infection but cannot stop the spread altogether," said Reddy.
Dr Kameshwar Prasad, former head of neurology at AIIMS and current director at Ranchi Institute of Medical Sciences, said people now have to learn to live with the virus. "The virus may remain in the environment for some more time. It may also cause sporadic surges in cases. But with vaccination, the impact of such infections or its ability to cause serious illness will be minimal," Prasad assured. In India, more than 90% of the adult population is fully vaccinated against Covid.
