- Wall Street analysts underestimated June’s U.S. jobs report, expecting weak growth due to negative private payroll data and President Trump’s angry social media posts. Today, analysts have explanations for their error: “Seasonal noise” around government hiring skewed the numbers upward, they say, and payrolls are in fact pretty weak. Meanwhile, global markets saw mild declines today, partly from profit-taking after recent highs.
You may have noticed yesterday that there was a bunch of chatter prior to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report that the number of new jobs created might be lower than the 110,000 consensus estimate. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Pantheon Macroeconomics all said they thought the number might be weaker than predicted. The ADP private payroll report, published before the official government number, showed a 33,000 decline in jobs.
