Nineteen camps in, I’ll see my 20th and 21st teams Thursday night at Gillette Stadium, and I’ve got a lot of answers for all of you this week. Good thing you had questions. Here they are …
From Kent Schrag (@TheBlockO): Does a Ja’Marr Chase contract deal get done before the start of the season?
Kent, I want to say yes, based on how things played out with Joe Burrow last year—where the quarterback’s negotiation went all the way into Week 1, with the deal closing three days before the Cincinnati Bengals’ opener. It’s why I don’t think there’s any huge reason to panic (in addition to the fact that Chase is under contract for another two years).
That said, my sense is Chase’s side hasn’t been in some massive rush to get a deal done, and I’d think there are two reasons for that, which play into one another. First, Justin Jefferson’s deal, done at $35 million per year, is so far above where the market had been previously that it’s complicated the other remaining high-end receiver negotiations. Second, waiting for CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk could bring more clarity.
Either way, obviously, Chase and Jefferson were in communication through Jefferson’s negotiation, and Chase, rightfully, believes he should be in the financial neighborhood his former college teammate is. Of course, there are differences, one key one being that Jefferson only had a year left on his rookie deal when he got extended. But it’s fair to say that the commitment from Cincinnati is going to have to be a very heavy one for Chase to take a deal now.
From erickleinphd (@DrEricKlein): Last year, the Jets traded away premium draft capital to the Packers for Aaron Rodgers at a time when no other team was trying to trade for him, and he was never going to play for Green Bay again. This year, they traded away another premium draft asset for Haason Reddick. What gives?
Erick, I think it’s a function of where the New York Jets are as a team. This is Robert Saleh’s fourth year. It’ll be GM Joe Douglas’s sixth season with the team (though he’s only had five full offseasons). Between Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams, Jermaine Johnson, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, they’ve developed a monster core. And when you get there, draft capital should become a little less valuable—both because you have fewer needs for your team and fewer opportunities for young players—and more movable for vets.
That’s your baseline. Then, you consider the circumstances. They had that core, but had to make up for a big swing-and-miss at quarterback, in Zach Wilson, and had a chance to do it with one of the best quarterbacks of all-time. They lost Bryce Huff this offseason and got a shot at filling the void he left with a guy who’s had 50.5 sacks over the past four years. They have a window now, and, like the Los Angeles Rams did a few years ago, they’re attacking it aggressively.
Should they have insisted on having a contract done before the Reddick trade? Sure. But they didn’t have full control over that, nor could they have forecast Rodgers’s injury last year. In these cases, I’d always rather a team be aggressive than passive. The Jets have been.
From JT Barczak (@jtbarczak): Who is your prediction for rookie of the year?
On offense, give me Caleb Williams. The Chicago Bears have ramped up the No. 1 pick since before he was drafted—from the work he and the coaches did in predraft Zooms, to getting him ready to lead at the 30 visit, to naming him starter upon arrival—and he has the sort of situation around him that’ll position him to thrive right away. Vets such as Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet and Teven Jenkins should ease the transition, as should his experience from having played as a true freshman at Oklahoma.
On defense, it’s a little harder to find someone. And I’ve probably changed this pick 10 times in my head. But I’ll take Indianapolis Colts pass rusher Laiatu Latu, who has all the ability in the world and a relentlessness to his game that comes with the injury concerns that dropped him a bit in the draft. That he’s got DeForest Buckner to eat up double teams and generate favorable matchups helps. I’ll throw Detroit Lions second-rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr. in there as a dark horse, because these awards can ride on stats, and he’s been a ball magnet in camp.
From Weathervane Jesus (@billbarilko05): Lamar isn’t a good passing QB who gets shut down religiously in playoffs when he faces good D. Do you think he’s overrated?
Well, you’re wrong about a lot of that, WJ. Lamar Jackson’s progressively become more proficient as a passer over the years, and his football marriage with offensive coordinator Todd Monken has been pretty good so far, considering the MVP award he won last year. At the same time, I get that people are a little frustrated that six years in, and with two of those MVP trophies on the mantle, he still hasn’t hit the Super Bowl stage.
I certainly think some of it is circumstance. But there’s another theory that someone gave me, that I thought was interesting—that quarterbacks who run a lot pay the price in the playoffs. The idea goes that taking a beating over the course of the year takes a toll on your body, and as such it becomes harder for those sorts of quarterbacks to maintain their mechanics and fundamentals. That, in turn, could affect accuracy at a time in the calendar when the margin for error is the smallest.
I’m not saying it applies to Jackson. I don’t know that one way or the other. I just thought it was an interesting theory worth considering.
From Frowny Face Emoji (@RedClayBlues): Who is your favorite to win the NFC South?
Frowny (that’s not his name, the actual emoji was where his name should’ve been), I’m probably going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on this one.
The simple reason is in a division that’s relatively even, I think the Buccaneers check the most boxes. Their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, has grown into what the Cleveland Browns thought he’d be in 2018, even if people aren’t paying attention. The offensive line, anchored by franchise left tackle Tristan Wirfs and having added first-rounder Graham Barton should be good. The skill guys are proven. The defense has strength up the middle, with Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. as anchors. The play-callers are really good.
Conversely, I’m not sure about the Atlanta Falcons’ pass rush, the New Orleans Saints’ offensive line, or a lot of things for the Carolina Panthers. So Tampa will win it for a fourth straight year.
From Sam Perry (@SPbeantown24): Is Maye a bust?
Sam, that’s a silly enough question to give New England Patriots fans a second crack at asking a question. I know you guys can do better than that. You knew Drake Maye was going to take time. The staff wound up working to rebuild his lower half mechanically. That’s going to take time. That should be a surprise to no one.
From Ryan (@ryanj7800): It seems Robert Kraft has, but why do local media in Boston refuse to acknowledge this is year one of a full-scale rebuild and they aren’t going to make some jump to 7 wins until they get another draft class and free-agency period.
Ryan, having the right expectations is important. So here’s a rundown: The Patriots have a solid bridge at quarterback (Jacoby Brissett), a good running back (Rhamondre Stevenson), a bunch of complementary receivers and tight ends, a shaky offensive line, a solid defensive front that lost its three-technique and top rusher, and a really good back seven. The formula, then, would be to use the offense to shorten games and control pace, and lean on the defense to win.
In today’s NFL, that’s a rather narrow path to victory.
Long term, the team has needs at receiver, offensive tackle and defensive end, three of the costliest spots (whether it’s in the draft or free agency) to fill.
Which is to say, yes, the roster is an offseason or two away from being where it needs to be. So I’d just say enjoy following the young players this year, hope to get a few glimpses of what Maye can do, and watch college football to see who might be there for the Patriots in April (LSU OT Will Campbell would be one name I’d give you).
From BRODERICKBURGH (@Steelerznut1184): Is Aiyuk coming to the burgh?
Broderick, I’d say it’s a toss-up right now. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offer, as we wrote Monday, is in the range of what some of the other top young receivers, such as Jaylen Waddle, got earlier in the offseason. If you peg that right around $28 million per year, you’re not far off from where the San Francisco 49ers were back in May, and the Niners have moved a little further over the past week or so after sitting stagnant for about three months.
Simple logic tells you, given that set of facts, that there should be a deal to be done with the Niners for Aiyuk. But is it that … simple? In situations like these where negotiations get contentious with a player who’s come up playing for a team, things can be taken personally. And there are times when players will leave the team they’ve played for at a price similar to what their own team is offering, as a matter of principle.
Now, I can’t crawl inside Aiyuk’s head and tell you what he’s thinking. But I do believe some fence-mending is/will be part of the equation with this. We’ll see what Aiyuk decides to do.
From Rahtid (@bloodclaat416): Does Chase Brown beat out Zack Moss for the starting running back position in Cincinnati?
Rahtid, I think that’ll be a pretty pure platoon, actually.
The Indianapolis Colts were sad to see Moss go—they viewed him, as he replaced Jonathan Taylor last year, as a starting-level running back in the league. Because of what they’re giving Taylor, and what they get from Taylor, they couldn’t afford to keep Moss, but they saw him capable of being the guy for someone.
That someone wound up being a Bengals team replacing Joe Mixon in the running game, and needing a complement to second-year dynamo Chase Brown. Moss fits into that role perfectly, as a slashing, powerful runner. And the upshot with these two is they’ll play the way the plays are called—the expectation is there’ll be less freelancing, which should help a line they expect to be better.
So, no, there’s no young incarnation of Mixon here. But they do have good backs, and I believe they’ll use two of them pretty evenly.
From JLK7299 (@JLK7299): Aiyuk is getting all the attention in SF, but what will it take to get Trent Williams into his helmet?
JLK, I think Trent Williams’s situation actually has a logical solution.
Williams is making $20.9 million this year, $23.35 million next year and $33.060 million in 2026. The final year was considered a phony year when the contract was signed, to boost the APY and spread out the cap hits. The number is no longer that far off from where the tackle market is—Wirfs and Penei Sewell are at $28 million per year—and moving a few million off that year and into ’24 could make that figure workable for everyone in a couple of years.
So that’s one way you could do it. Maybe the Niners would take $5.06 million out of 2026, to boost Williams up to $25.96 million for this year, and take his number for two years from now down to $28 million. That way, they haven’t given him a flat raise, and they still have the flexibility to move things around next year, while making ’26 more doable.
From Alec (@alec_kwait): Just heard a Cleveland city council president on with Ken Carman talking new stadium, and I’m worried this is gonna get ugly. Any insight?
Alec, my feelings on it are that these things always get territorial, because they’re decisions that last for decades and can’t be undone. I also think this one, in particular, might have a little more to do with what’s going around the stadium, as the stadium itself.
Obviously, the stadium has been a tentpole facility for downtown Cleveland and the county since it opened in 1999. It brings people downtown, where they eat, drink, stay in hotels and now can gamble. It also allows for the idea of more growth, where a renovation leading to more events would support developing land around it. On the flip side, the Browns would have the chance to develop land around a new stadium themselves, and further profit from what’s obviously already a very profitable business.
I’m not sure where this will end. But I also wouldn’t freak out about it. The Browns aren’t going anywhere. They’ll be in Cleveland for a long time to come.
From Adam Matthew (@JNennski): How many days has it been since Ohio State last beat Michigan?
Too many, Adam, but I do wish Michigan people would stop inflating the number to include the 2020 game that was called off because of COVID-19 in that program—Ohio State would’ve won that one by a million, and everyone knows it. All right, got that off my chest …
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Why There’s No Need to Panic About Ja’Marr Chase’s Contract Situation.
