Good morning.
Kudos to the Wall Street Journal for the headline of the week: “Why the Next Recession is Always Six Months Away.” And so it has been for the last year. Everyone predicts it, the numbers defy it, and it gets delayed, again and again.
Why is this happening? There’s no great mystery here. CEOs, economists, and others have been predicting a recession because there is little history of conquering an inflationary surge like the one we are experiencing without recession. But it keeps getting delayed because government stimulus has left consumers flush, and capital for investment remains plentiful and historically cheap—with most interest rates still below the rate of inflation.
