Good morning.
Kudos to the Wall Street Journal for the headline of the week: “Why the Next Recession is Always Six Months Away.” And so it has been for the last year. Everyone predicts it, the numbers defy it, and it gets delayed, again and again.
Why is this happening? There’s no great mystery here. CEOs, economists, and others have been predicting a recession because there is little history of conquering an inflationary surge like the one we are experiencing without recession. But it keeps getting delayed because government stimulus has left consumers flush, and capital for investment remains plentiful and historically cheap—with most interest rates still below the rate of inflation.
Which gets to the key lesson of history: the longer the recession gets delayed, the more inflation gets baked in, and the harder it will be to defeat it. I don’t wish hard times on anyone. But I do remember the 1970s.
Separately, it’s book week at CEO Daily, and Richard Haass, who is stepping down after nearly 20 years running the Council on Foreign Relations, has one worthy of your attention, called The Bill of Obligations. It’s not about business, or even about foreign relations, but about something that is fundamental to both: the breakdown of American civic and political culture. We get the government we deserve, he says, but not the one we need. And the burden of fixing that falls partly on us as citizens. Writes Haass: “American democracy will endure only if obligations join rights at the core of a widely shared understanding of citizenship.” He offers a list of ten obligations. Given my short space, I’ll share the two he says are most important: No. 1, “Be Informed,” and No. 10, “Put Country First.” I’d also put a plug in for No. 9, which is to “Support the Teaching of Civics in School.” It’s a short book, and well worth the time.
More news below. And check out this story on the crossfire Walgreens is taking in the U.S. culture wars. The pharmacy company said it won’t sell the abortion pill mifepristone in 20 states where Republican attorneys general threatened lawsuits, and in response California Gov. Gavin Newsom asked his Department of Health and Human services to review all relationships the state has with Walgreens.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
