With just over one week to go until the Feb. 10 NBA trade deadline, it's almost time for the Philadelphia 76ers to make a franchise-changing decision.
Will they hold onto Ben Simmons beyond the deadline in the hopes of landing James Harden or another superstar this summer, even though they might waste an MVP-caliber season from Joel Embiid if Simmons continues refusing to play? Or will they take the best offer for Simmons at the deadline, Harden dreams be damned, to maximize Embiid's chances of winning a title this year?
Team president Daryl Morey sounds inclined not to settle in Simmons trade talks, which means the Sixers might not bring in major reinforcements at the deadline. That raises another question for them: Will they attempt to reshuffle their roster to get out of luxury-tax territory?
At the moment, the Sixers are roughly $6.3 million above the NBA's $136.6 million luxury-tax line. That would result in a luxury-tax bill of approximately $9.8 million on top of their $142.9 million payroll.
Even if they do nothing at the trade deadline, their tax bill is likely to dip a bit thanks to George Hill. They have his $1,275,491 dead cap hit on their books after waiving him back in early August, but the two-year, $8 million contract he signed with the Milwaukee Bucks will largely offset that. So long as Hill finishes the season on that deal, the Sixers will receive a set-off of $1,255,468, which will bring them down to $5.1 million over the tax line and drop their tax bill to roughly $7.6 million.
Either way, the Sixers' tax bill is a pittance compared to what the Golden State Warriors ($170.3 million), Brooklyn Nets ($110.4 million) and Los Angeles Clippers ($93.9 million) are projected to owe in luxury tax this season. They also had a luxury-tax bill north of $25 million last season when they finished as the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, so they clearly aren't afraid to shell out money when needed.
But with only the fourth-best odds to win the East this year and the seventh-best odds to win the NBA championship, could they look to reset the clock on the repeater tax by ducking under the tax line at the deadline?
When teams are over the luxury-tax threshold in at least three out of four seasons, they become subject to the more punitive repeater tax in the following season. That can become prohibitively costly once a team goes more than $15-20 million over the tax line.
Since the Sixers were above the tax threshold last year, they'd have to stay under it either this season or next to avoid moving into repeater-tax territory in 2023-24. If they do believe they'll be able to land Harden or another star in a Simmons trade this summer, they might hope to push off the repeater tax for at least one more season as a result.
Unless they do trade Simmons at the deadline or find a taker for Tobias Harris, it won't necessarily be easy for them to dip under the tax line, though. That's particularly true if they hope to cut $6.3 million in salary, leaving nothing to chance regarding Hill's potential set-off.
The simplest path under would be trading Danny Green, who's earning $10 million this year, either in a straight-up salary dump or for a player earning at least $5.1 million less. However, the Oklahoma City Thunder are the only team with enough open salary-cap space to take Green in a salary dump, while the New Orleans Pelicans ($17.0 million), Brooklyn Nets ($11.4 million) and Dallas Mavericks ($10.8 million) are the only three teams with large enough traded player exceptions to squeeze him into.
The Nets are already $110.4 million above the tax line, so they aren't likely to want to add Green's $10 million salary on top of their $171.9 million luxury-tax payroll. Doing so would cost them an additional $55 million in tax alone since they're already so far over the line.
The Mavericks ($15.3 million) and Pelicans ($23.1 million) do have plenty of breathing room between their current cap sheets and the tax line, so both teams could be interested in absorbing Green's contract into their TPEs. For example, the Pelicans could look to offload Garrett Temple, who's owed a guaranteed $5.2 million next season, in exchange for Green's fully non-guaranteed $10 million salary in 2022-23.
Temple is earning $4.9 million this season, so swapping him for Green would get the Sixers roughly $25,000 below the tax line. The Sixers could structure the deal as a non-simultaneous trade, where they send Green into the Pelicans' TPE, create a $10 million TPE of their own, then take Temple back using a portion of that newly created exception.
Between Boban Marjanovic ($3.5 million), Trey Burke ($3.15 million), Sterling Brown ($3.0 million) and Frank Ntilikina ($1.8 million), the Mavericks could also offer the Sixers plenty of cap savings in a Green deal. They might be even more interested in acquiring Green than the Pelicans since swingman Tim Hardaway Jr. recently suffered a fracture of the fifth metatarsal of his left foot, which will sideline him indefinitely.
To be clear: None of these deals would bring the Sixers closer to championship contention this year. Although Green has already missed 18 games this season, he's still a heady, two-way player who's shooting 39.4 percent from deep. Flipping him for a fringe rotation player would send a bad message to Embiid and the fanbase, regardless of the cost savings.
No one should cry poor for the Sixers' ownership group if they stay above the tax threshold this season, either. Sixers managing partner Josh Harris is worth an estimated $6 billion, while limited partner Michael Rubin is worth an estimated $8 billion. If the Warriors are willing to shell out $170 million in tax alone this season to build a championship contender, the Sixers' ownership group shouldn't necessarily balk at the repeater tax.
They might decide to keep Green for a different reason, though: He may be key to their Harden aspirations.
If Harden declines his $47.4 million player option and becomes a free agent, thereby eliminating the opt-in-and-trade route, the Sixers will need to stay below the NBA's projected $151.6 million tax apron for all of next season to acquire him via sign-and-trade. Waiving Green and clearing his $10 million non-guaranteed salary next year is one of the cleanest paths to do so.
The Sixers could instead look to salary-dump Furkan Korkmaz, who's earning $4.6 million this season in the first year of a three-year, $15 million deal. However, dumping him alone won't push them under the tax line, so they'd also need to trade one of Shake Milton ($1.8 million), Andre Drummond ($1.7 million), Isaiah Joe ($1.5 million), Paul Reed ($1.5 million) or Charles Bassey ($925,258). Among that group, Reed and Bassey would be the most likely trade candidates.
Korkmaz is shooting only 39.2 percent overall and a career-low 28.8 percent from three-point range, but the Sixers have leaned on him as a backup ball-handler while Milton recovers from a back injury. If they don't trade Simmons, they may feel inclined to keep him as insurance in case Milton, Tyrese Maxey or Seth Curry suffer injuries that sideline them during the playoffs.
The next week may help the Sixers decide which direction to go in at the deadline. After plowing through a paper-soft slate of opponents in January, upcoming games against the Dallas Mavericks (Feb. 4), Chicago Bulls (Feb. 6) and Phoenix Suns (Feb. 8) will be much better measuring sticks in terms of gauging their championship aspirations this season.
Either way, don't be surprised if the Sixers do look to trim some salary at the deadline and push off the repeater tax for at least one more season.
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac.
