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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
John Bowden

Why the polls got it wrong on Trump — again

Kamala Harris’s collapse Tuesday evening was shocking to many in the political press, who had expected a tight election but one that, if anything, looked to be trending in her favor heading into Election Day.

There were real — or so it was thought — signs of her impending success, analysts thought. Buoying the wave of assumptions were two polls released over the weekend showing Harris in a dominant position — one, the J. Ann Selzer-run Des Moines Register poll, showed the vice president leading by 3 percentage points in Iowa. Another, from The New York Times and Siena College, showed her ahead slightly in several battleground states, while Donald Trump had a clear lead in just two: Georgia and Arizona.

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