The NBA does not allow players under 19 years old to get drafted as of right now. However, that policy could reportedly change — and it could happen reasonably soon.
Some of the game’s biggest stars of all-time, such as LeBron James and Kobe Bryant, decided to forego their collegiate eligibility and declare for the draft after finishing high school. None, however, were allowed to do that since the rule changed in 2005.
But for nearly two decades since then, even the most NBA-ready prospects have used a buffer season between high school and the NBA. Some, such as LaMelo Ball, opted to play overseas. Others, like Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga, chose alternative paths like the G League Ignite. Now, we can add another non-collegiate route to the mix.
So is this the end of college basketball as we know it? Probably not!
However, the prep-to-pros trend may become fashionable again once more. Here is what we know about when and why this might happen.
Is this actually happening?
According to Shams Charania, the NBA will meet with the basketball players union later this week. Among the many topics of discussion on the agenda, one notable item is a likely change to NBA draft eligibility rules.
Charania has more on the ongoing discussions (via The Athletic):
“The league and NBPA are expected to agree on moving the age eligibility for the NBA Draft from 19 years old to 18, clearing the way for the return of high school players who want to make the leap to the NBA, per sources with knowledge of the discussions.”
Rather than mandating that all prospects take at least a year between high school and the NBA, players will have the opportunity to declare for the draft without ever attending college or joining a program like G League Ignite and Overtime Elite.
Charania reports that the league office and the players association both “appear motivated” to reduce the age eligibility.
So while nothing is official, it seems very likely that the rule will change.
But why is this happening now?
During a Board of Governors press conference in July, NBA commissioner Adam Silver shared his thoughts about the topic. Silver, who admits that he originally wanted to raise the required eligibility from 19 years old to 20, said that his position has changed.
“Over the years, [I] have been convinced because of a lot of societal changes, now most recently changes with NIL, etc., and listening to Condoleezza Rice and hearing her committee’s recommendations that we should move to 18.”
There is some school of thought that NIL policy changes may encourage more players to stay in college. Effectively, because players can earn money while within NCAA systems, there may be less temptation to turn pro before they are ready.
The Commission on College Basketball, led by former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, proposed in 2018 that the NBA eliminated the “one-and-done” rule.
Silver said that he is “hopeful” this happens in the next CBA because he feels that it is the “right thing” to do.
“It’s in all of our interests that we start impacting with these young players, especially because in our sport they are identified at such a young age, and begin working with them on their development then, not just basketball skills but increasingly there’s a focus on their mental health, their diets, just helping them build character and all of the important values around the sport.”
For players who are legitimately ready to make the leap to the pros directly out of high school, it makes a lot of sense to start that journey sooner rather than later.
When will this happen?
Charania reported that the reduced age limit in the NBA could effectively begin “as early as” the 2024 NBA Draft.That would essentially make this a “double draft” — as in, the best players from the Class of 2024 and the Class of 2025 could be eligible to hear their names called.
This provides at least some clarity on why Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge recently said that he feels the 2024 NBA Draft may be stronger than the 2023 NBA Draft (which has the star power of both Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson.
Danny Ainge on 2023 NBA Draft: "I think it's better than 2022's. I don't know where it ranks historically. I think 2024 might be even better than 2023."
— Andy Larsen (@andyblarsen) September 12, 2022
One of those players from the Class of 2025 who may be impacted by such a change is Cooper Flagg, who is already one of the most promising defensive prospects in recent memory.
Cameron Boozer, the son of two-time NBA All-Star big man Carlos Boozer, is the No. 1 player in ESPN’s Class of 2025.
So what's next?
The NBA and the NBPA must agree on the exact terms during the collective bargaining period, but the reporting suggests it’s likely these two sides are on the same page.
The CBA expires at the end of the 2023-24 season, but either side can choose an opt-out on December 15, 2022. The NBA and NBPA will both continue to negotiate what will and will not be included in the next CBA until then.
The topic of one-and-done- is very exciting news for high-level players, who will have more options than ever. They can either go to college, the G League Ignite, Overtime Elite, or even overseas. Ultimately, they have never had so much autonomy — which means each player can choose the path before for themselves.
For the sake of player development, this should also encourage the NBA to implement a true minor league system in which each team is required to have an affiliate in the G League.
As of right now, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns both do not have their own G League team. If an 18-year-old prospect will hear his name called in the NBA Draft, he may require some more time before he is actually ready to contribute.
Portland and Phoenix need to have a place of their own for those players to do exactly that, rather than relying on using the flexible assignments to other teams.
