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Why the inner-Melbourne seat of Richmond could be 'critical' on Victorian election night

Lyn Payne is having a tough time deciding how to cast her vote.

The retired nurse lives in the inner-Melbourne district of Richmond, which is being vacated this state election by Labor stalwart Richard Wynne.

She quite likes Liberal candidate Lucas Moon, but is concerned his party is becoming increasingly influenced by the religious right.

"And after having a very religious upbringing, I just can't stand having people like that telling me what to do anymore," she said.

"And I don't like Matthew Guy, I'm not very fussed about Dan [Andrews] either … when people get into power, their commitment to people seems to go out the window.

"So I don't know who I'm going to vote for … it's very hard."

Her walking companion Victoria Chipperfield is usually a Greens voter, but is unhappy about some of the decisions made by the Yarra council, where Greens candidate Gabrielle de Vietri is a councillor.

"So I have no faith in the Greens anymore," she said.

Where they ultimately decide to park their vote could end up being crucial in what's shaping up as a tight election contest for next Saturday.

'Very, very close' contest shapes up in Richmond

The seat of Richmond, which spans Collingwood, Richmond, Fitzroy and Clifton Hill, has been in Labor hands since 1908.

But after claiming Brunswick in a historic victory at the last election, the Greens has set its sights on scooping up more prized Labor jewels in Melbourne's inner city.

Districts like Richmond, Northcote and Albert Park are seats Labor is loathe to lose in an election where the party is also facing pressure from independents in Melbourne's west.

Labor has a 5.8 per cent margin in Richmond, and is hoping it can hold the seat with its fresh candidate Lauren O'Dwyer, who has worked in the arts sector and as an Andrews government adviser.

While many political analysts view the race as a contest between Labor and the Greens, the Liberal Party's Mr Moon — an army veteran who has campaigned for modernisation of the RSL — firmly believes it remains a three-cornered contest.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said the margin might look good for Labor at first glance, but did not take into account the "incumbency factor".

"It has been held by Richard Wynne for 23 years, so he's a long-serving member who's well known, so his retirement should hurt Labor," Mr Green said.

Some controversy over the location of the state's first safe-injecting room could also become a factor in the seat's west.

Also stacked against Labor is the Liberal Party's campaign in the seat, including its message to "put Labor last", reinforced with its how-to-vote cards.

"A message like that may decrease the flow of preferences to Labor in a seat like Richmond," Mr Green said.

Monash University senior politics lecturer Zareh Ghazarian said the Greens would certainly be hoping to win, given the seat's proximity to Greens-held Melbourne, Prahran and Brunswick.

"But it's not necessary going to be an automatic win … for the Greens," Dr Ghazarian said.

"It's a marginal seat, but it's still very much a margin that Labor can defend … I think this is going to be definitely a seat to watch."

Dr Ghazarian said depending on the overall result, a close count in Richmond could turn it into a "critical seat".

"There's some speculation about a hung parliament or minority government, I'm not so sure about that," he said.

"But if it becomes a close race, then who wins Richmond can potentially be a difference between who can form majority government."

To the north, Mr Green and Dr Ghazarian identified Northcote — held by Labor on a 1.7 per cent margin — as another seat ripe for the taking by the Greens.

"Looking at this, you would think that Northcote would be one that the Greens might be able to win … it's going to be very, very close for whoever wins," Dr Ghazarian said.

Cost-of-living front of mind for many voters

From its Hoddle Street clinic, community health organisation cohealth supports the community of more than 3,500 people living across public housing high-rise towers in Collingwood and Fitzroy.

In a campaign marked by billions of dollars of pledges for major hospitals, cohealth has been pushing for a commitment to help it upgrade dilapidated buildings at its Collingwood centre.

So far, the Greens have given support but neither Labor nor the Coalition have committed to the project.

Inside the public housing towers, cohealth worker Nura Awata said several migrant voters she had spoken to were still unsure what the parties clamouring for their vote stood for.

"Most of them, they are voting, they just want to avoid the fine, that's it, but they don't know what the party's vision is," she said.

She said there was an opportunity for more outreach from candidates to help linguistically diverse communities wrap their heads around all the parties, sometimes with similar-sounding names.

Like some people living in this seat, Ms Awata is not eligible to vote in this election, having arrived from Eritrea as a refugee towards the end of 2019.

She's looking forward to applying for citizenship next year — but in the meantime, she hopes whoever wins government will focus on cost-of-living pressures so her dream of owning a family home can one day be realised.

"I'm a single mother and I'm working and my kids are at the primary school," she said.

"It's very difficult, there are so many bills I have to pay."

Kim Chua, who has also been involved in cohealth, has lived in the area for more than two decades.

Looking at the contest in Richmond, she's reminded of Greens leader Adam Bandt's victory in the overlapping federal seat of Melbourne in 2010.

That seat had also been held by a Labor stalwart, Lindsay Tanner, before his retirement created an opportunity for the minor party.

She's expecting a Greens victory on Saturday and predicted the attraction of a well-known local councillor's face would be a key factor for some.

"If this person is always paying attention to our work … they come and support us, they always attend our public meetings and public events and ask what we need to help … then we know this person cares about us," she said.

Calls for public housing rent reduction

The energetic 69-year-old pointed out the different issues affecting the community as she walked through her neighbourhood.

Her observations included the line of people waiting for food parcels outside a local community organisation, a line she said had been getting longer in the past few months.

She wants the next government to consider freezes or reductions in rent, to ease pressure on those living in public housing.

"Because at the moment, everything is so expensive," she said.

Ms Chua said her aged pension had risen with recent federal changes, but the difference it made was barely enough to cover the costs of a meal out.

"Especially in the last two years, three years, during the pandemic, and then for the aged pension … very hard," she said.

Push to better balance neighbourhood's character with development

Voters stopped along Fitzroy's streets raised other issues.

Michael said he'd lived in the area for more than a decade and wanted to see an MP with a vision for how to balance the influx of necessary housing projects with the neighbourhood's unique personality.

"This was Melbourne's first suburb, it has a lot of character, it draws a lot of people … but the planning rules are stacked against protection and preservation," he said.

"Protecting the character of the area doesn't necessarily mean excluding the diversity … that's been another long-term feature of the place, has been the diversity of the population and that it accommodates people from lots of different parts of society."

Another voter, Andy, said he was likely to vote Greens in a push to see less funding put into major road projects and more into rail.

"Public transport, like north to west would be good," he said.

Long-time Fitzroy resident Jessica said the election race for Richmond felt "a lot more competitive" this time around.

"The competition, I guess, between Labor and Greens has been pretty intense," she said.

"I also feel like they're kind of similar, there's not a massive difference between the two."

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