The Georgia Bulldogs did great work to potentially clinch a playoff spot this past weekend with their 31-17 win over Tennessee. That win also kept them alive for a SEC championship game berth.
Unfortunately, Georgia faces stiff competition for the final spot: Alabama, Ole Miss, Tennessee have two SEC losses, and the loser of the Texas/Texas A&M matchup will likely have two SEC losses. Assuming the Texas-Texas A&M winner clinches a spot in the SEC championship, the only tiebreaker that would be appropriate, according to the SEC’s tie-breaking procedure, would be the winning percentage of conference opponents from each team.
If every favored team wins, here’s what the winning percentage of conference opponents would look like:
- Alabama Crimson Tide (.500)
- Georgia Bulldogs (.469)
- Texas A&M Aggies (.453)
- Ole Miss Rebels (.375)
- Tennessee Volunteers (.359)
Even if one of Georgia’s past opponents wins, like the Mississippi State Bulldogs winning against the Missouri Tigers, and Georgia and Alabama end up tied in winning percentage, the Crimson Tide would win based on head-to-head tiebreaker. Alabama beat Georgia in Week 5.
Therefore, the Bulldogs must hope Alabama loses a game in the final two weeks if they want to make the SEC championship.
Alabama plays Oklahoma on Saturday. While Oklahoma was ranked at one point in the season, starting 3-0, that ranking was a mirage. Oklahoma is 5-5 and has beaten just two Power Four teams all season. The Sooners still have an 18.5% chance of winning against Alabama.
The Auburn Tigers have an even smaller chance of beating Alabama, a 9.1% chance according to ESPN. One of the biggest reasons is the Tigers are playing in Tuscaloosa.
However, there have been some insanely close matchups in the Iron Bowl that could’ve gone Auburn’s way in the end. Last year, Alabama converted an insane fourth-and-31 to win the game (against a 6-5 Auburn team). Three years ago, Alabama needed three overtimes to win. Five years ago, Alabama lost. It feels like anything can happen in this game. Georgia fans will surely be wishing for an upset.
