The 49ers look primed to repeat their achievements of the 2021 season and go on another run during the second half of 2022 after ripping off back-to-back wins over the Rams and Chargers.
However, the unconvincing nature of the latter victory, in which the 49ers eventually overcame offensive mistakes to beat an undermanned Chargers team behind a dominant performance from the San Francisco defense, laid bare the main reason why some may have reason for some trepidation when it comes to predicting another surge from the Niners.
San Francisco’s offense remains an inconsistent one that generally has little problem moving the ball down the field but continually struggles to cap drives with touchdowns. The 49ers rank 10th in yards per drive, according to Football Outsiders, but are just 17th in points per drive, illustrating their problems inside the 20-yard line.
There is no overarching theme behind the 49ers’ failures in the red zone. They went two for five in the red zone against the Chargers but, if not for a Brandon Aiyuk drop and Elijah Mitchell slipping on a likely walk-in touchdown late in the fourth quarter, San Francisco would have gone four of five in the congested area of the field.
Such miscues should not be disregarded but the 49ers could move to take the stress off their red-zone offense by recruiting a player who can deliver more explosive plays and be a scoring threat from further out. The 49ers have already taken one big swing on offense this season by trading for running back Christian McCaffrey, but that should not preclude them from taking another and getting involved in the Odell Beckham Jr. sweepstakes.
The 49ers have been connected with Beckham as talk over the wide receiver’s next destination hots up. Indeed, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last week that the 49ers were on Beckham’s list of potential teams along with the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants.
Asked about speculation around them being in the mix of Beckham, head coach Kyle Shanahan gave the boilerplate answer that the 49ers “consider everything”.
Though there is no guarantee what version of Beckham they would get after close to a year on the sideline, there is good reason for the Niners to be interested in adding Beckham to their roster.
San Francisco’s passing attack has been efficient in 2022, ranking seventh in Football Outsiders DVOA in that regard, but it is clearly not operating at anywhere close to its full potential.
Brandon Aiyuk, who is on course for his first 1,000-yard receiving season, ranks ninth among all wide receivers in DVOA, which measures per-play value, and 11th in DYAR, which is a gauge of total value.
While he is excelling, All-Pro wideout Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have enjoyed inconsistent influence on the aerial attack. Unlike Aiyuk, Samuel has struggled to create separation consistently while Kittle has often made more of an impact as a blocker than a receiver this season.
Open Score (x) by Catch Score (y), 2022 season.
-Tyler Lockett, permanently underrated (YAC score not shown, though)
-Chris Olave is amazing already, needs a quarterback
-Diontae Johnson is always open
-Donovan Peoples-Jones and George Pickens: not open, still making catches. pic.twitter.com/a61G2B4N2K
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) November 16, 2022
The addition of Beckham could open things up for both Samuel and Kittle.
It’s difficult to know how long it will take Beckham to recover from the torn ACL he suffered during Super Bowl LVI in February but, if he returns at close to what we was last year for the Rams, he will give the team that acquires him a receiver who can win at every level with his route-running.
Beckham is a field-stretcher who doesn’t need speed to test defenses vertically. Last season, he had an average depth of target of 13.3 yards across his time with the Browns and the Rams. That could be considered in part a symptom of playing in a Rams offense that adapted to Matthew Stafford and became significantly more aggressive, but 2021 also marked the third successive season in which Beckham has had an aDOT of at least 13 yards.
In that sense, the 49ers may not be a natural fit. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is averaging just 6.6 intended air yards per attempt. Yet there is nothing to suggest Beckham could not operate effectively in an offense that relies heavily on receivers creating yards after catch.
Beckham is widely regarded as one of the premier runners of the slant route in the NFL and he would have plenty of opportunity to reaffirm that status in Shanahan’s offense.
But it is the prospect of him attacking downfield for the 49ers that makes the idea of Beckham signing for San Francisco so tantalising. While Garoppolo rarely attacks more than 20 yards downfield, he has been extremely impressive attacking between 10 and 20 yards downfield, consistently making big time throws of that distance in 2022.
Having Beckham and Aiyuk on the field at the same time running routes of that depth would theoretically open things up for Samuel to wreak havoc underneath by doing what he does best in racking up yards after the catch while also diverting attention away from Kittle when he does break out into pass patterns.
Last season, having Beckham on the field played a critical role in Cooper Kupp’s triple-crown winning season for the Rams. The 49ers are blessed with more weapons than the Rams’ attack but their offense is still falling short of what it could be despite an efficient season passing the ball.
There is only one football to go around but, by following up the addition of arguably the league’s best pass-catching running back in McCaffrey with that of Beckham, the 49ers could ensure there is always at least one star open for Garoppolo to target and make his path to explosive passing plays significantly easier.
