AbbVie could soon pressure Regeneron Pharmaceuticals in eczema treatment, an analyst said Friday as Regeneron stock hit a ceiling at its 200-day line.
More than nine in 10 adults who need systemic eczema treatment — as opposed to a topical cream — receive Regeneron and Sanofi's drug, Dupixent. But a recent survey of 102 dermatologists based in the U.S. suggests a growing market share for AbbVie's Rinvoq. They project Rinvoq taking 7% of the market over the next six months as Dupixent's share falls to 78%.
Piper Sandler analyst Christopher Raymond notes new medicines from Incyte, privately held Leo Pharma and Pfizer mean "docs have more choices," especially for patients who don't respond to Dupixent.
"Dupixent is still king, but no longer the only game in town," he said in a report.
On today's stock market, Regeneron stock rose 1.8% to 645.52. Shares of AbbVie dipped 0.5% to 153.50.
Regeneron Stock: Is Eczema A Rising Tide?
The biggest market for Dupixent is in eczema patients. But it also has Food and Drug Administration approval to treat asthma and a condition that causes polyps in the nose. Regeneron expects that by 2023 roughly 4 million people across 11 potential diseases could receive Dupixent.
In the first quarter, Dupixent sales surged 43% to $1.81 billion. Sanofi records sales of Dupixent and Regeneron receives collaboration revenue. Dupixent sales beat expectations, while sales of AbbVie's Rinvoq were light at $465 million. Rinvoq also treats other inflammatory conditions like arthritis.
Regeneron estimates there are 2.3 million people who could receive Dupixent for eczema treatment. Just a single-digit percentage of them receive any systemic eczema drug, the company says.
"So the rising tide analogy likely applies here," Piper Sandler's Raymond said. "Moreover, growth in asthma and other indications is likely to continue to fuel growth for Dupixent."
He kept his overweight ratings on Regeneron stock and AbbVie stock.
Rinvoq Growing Despite Safety Concerns
The FDA recently required JAK inhibitors, Rinvoq's drug class, to include warning labels. The drugs increase the risk of heart-related events, cancer, blood clots and death.
But that hasn't stopped Rinvoq sales. Despite their miss, Rinvoq sales climbed nearly 54% on a strict as-reported basis in the first quarter.
"Despite updated JAK safety labeling, it does appear that dermatologists are starting to view the drug as meaningfully differentiated, and project a meaningful uptick in (eczema) use," Piper Sandler's Raymond said.
He added that "Bottom line, Dupixent numbers seem safe — for now."
Regeneron stock remains a highly rated biotech with a top-notch Composite Rating of 95, according to IBD Digital. This puts shares in the top 5% of all stocks in terms of fundamental and technical measures. Regeneron shares also have a strong Relative Strength Rating of 91, landing them in the leading 9% in terms of 12-month performance. Regeneron is also an IBD Tech Leader.
AbbVie also has strong ratings with a CR of 94 and an RS Rating of 96.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
