In a Sydney cafe, Izzat Khatib can expertly manoeuvre the delicate handles on a coffee machine to make a full-bodied espresso.
It's almost a reflex after 22 years as a cafe owner in the Western Sydney suburb of Bankstown.
Over his two decades in business, the father-of-six has experienced the impacts of a changing economy on his small business many times.
However, in those years, he had never experienced anything like the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020 that forced him to shut his doors for more than two months.
When he could finally reopen, Mr Khatib and other business owners in the shopping centre had to contend with a newly imposed — and major — police presence, a COVID-19 measure enforced by the state government.
He remembers 15 police officers patrolling just outside the cafe doors, and said it was a clear deterrent to takeaway customers.
"As a business, we struggled," he said.
"I was sitting here turning over around $80 a day.
"They were questioning why you were coming into the centre. They were quite heavy-handed. It was intimidating.
"It seems to have been more in the west than anywhere else."
It led to a disillusionment with the major parties. Then, one day, he discovered his regular customer, John Koukoulis, was also a member of Clive Palmer's United Australia Party (UAP).
Mr Koukoulis is now the UAP candidate in the Sydney seat of Watson, and Mr Khatib is a member of the UAP backing his campaign.
A Palestinian Muslim by heritage, Mr Khatib said it was not so much his multicultural background that directed him towards the party, but rather his experience as a small business owner in the working-class suburb during COVID-19.
"Definitely the biggest thing was [UAP's] no lockdown [policy]," he said.
It's almost a protest vote, and he feels other major and minor parties have little to offer him.
"Sometimes in life we need a change. So it's always been Labor-Liberal. I don't think anyone [here] looks at One Nation, obviously," he said.
"UAP seems to be more honest actually, you feel that.
"There is a sense [Clive Palmer] is my next door neighbour, he is my friend."
Mr Khatib said that, despite appearances from its larger-than-life founder — Queensland billionaire Clive Palmer, who fronts much of the party's advertising — the UAP was a very multicultural party.
"It's the most multicultural you'll ever see … It's all walks of life," he said.
Resentment over lockdowns feeding into UAP support
The UAP's support among multicultural groups is being noted anecdotally by observers as one of the unexpected trends to emerge during the 2022 election campaign.
An uptick in support has also been seen in focus groups of UAP voters conducted by RedBridge, a political consultancy that has worked with Labor, minor parties and independent candidates.
"We get a very … culturally diverse representation," RedBridge's Simon Welsh said.
One of the issues that comes up frequently is resentment over lockdowns.
"It's certainly feeding into it. And that experience is being replicated in our research, in terms of when we do focus groups with UAP voters," he said.
Mr Khatib said that, among the Muslims he knows, "there's a lot of talk going around about the UAP".
Adel Salman from the Islamic Council of Victoria was not surprised.
He said harsh lockdowns in Western Sydney were viewed by many to be targeting Muslim areas, and long lockdowns in Melbourne had also built up a reservoir of resentment.
"When you have a populist party talking against that and talking about freedom of the individual and freedom from lockdowns, etc., I'm not that surprised that … there may be some people within the Muslim community who would actually be supportive," he said.
Mr Salman said the UAP might perform better than expected in areas such as Western Sydney and Melbourne's outer suburbs, but "that would still be … a minimal number of votes" overall.
The Islamic Council of Victoria ran a survey of Muslim Australian voters this month. Lockdowns did not emerge as a leading issue.
"[It] didn't register as one of the top concerns, but other areas did: Religious discrimination, Islamophobia … [have] come up quite often," he said.
Candidate says UAP is diverse party
Mr Koukoulis himself is from a Greek background and is chief executive of registered training organisation Ransford College.
He said the UAP appealed to a diverse group of people.
"We've got young people. We have Muslims, non-Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists," he said.
"They know that I relate to them and they relate to me and I'm their voice."
However, it remains to be seen whether these anecdotal trends will play out in the numbers once ballots are counted.
Watson is held by long-time Labor MP Tony Burke, with a margin of more than 17 per cent, and is considered a very safe Labor seat.
At the 2019 election there was a 3.7 per cent swing away from Labor and the UAP picked up 4.2 per cent of the vote, or about 3,500 votes.
Polls suggest that UAP will have support from about 4 per cent of the electorate, including in Watson, but some analysts believe the party's support could be underestimated by polling to date.
"Certainly the vote looks [to be] going up," Mr Welsh said.
He said RedBridge's research suggested the stigma of admitting to be a UAP supporter was fading fast.
But it's still not easy for pollsters to reach UAP voters.
"They're just very difficult people to get into the research process," he said.
"They're difficult to get on the phone. It's difficult to get them to answer a poll because, [for] so many of them, the core problem is that they don't feel like the political system responds to them."
Mr Koukoulis is sending his preferences in the lower house to One Nation and then the Coalition, with Labor and then The Greens last.
UAP are 'looking outside the square', voters say
Elsewhere, Watson voter Diane Yammine has also signed up to the UAP.
The mother-of-three said she felt the two major parties were not offering anything new and was particularly attracted to UAP's policy of capping housing interest rates at 3 per cent.
"I love UAP policies on interest rates and freedom of religion," she said.
"They're not just sort of sticking to policies that don't work.
"They're looking outside the square."
She, too, was unhappy with the NSW Liberal-National state government's handling of COVID-19 lockdowns.
"There was just a lot of forcefulness going on and our voice was taken away, and a lot of control," she said.
"It just made me want to see what else is out there."
Coming from a Lebanese Christian background Ms Yammine said she did not view the UAP as a homogenous party, the way some might.
"It's definitely multicultural. It's very diverse," she said.
While the UAP's chances are rated as low by the experts, Mr Khatib will be watching Saturday's election result closely.
"Will they win? I hope so. I reckon they might give it a very good shake."
