The new pact between China and Solomon Islands that has sent alarm bells ringing in Australia and the United States is not the first security agreement Beijing has inked with a Pacific nation.
But experts say the deal signed by Beijing and Honiara last month is "qualitatively different" and the geopolitical context has changed.
Beijing and Fiji signed a memorandum of understanding centred around police cooperation in 2011, and another agreement in 2014 on defence issues such as border control, equipment and training.
Wesley Morgan, a research fellow from the Griffith Asia Institute, said those agreements were focused on combating transnational crime like cybercrime and drug trafficking.
"We saw secondments, where Fiji police went to China, there was training, there's been some provision of equipment," Dr Morgan said.
But he said there had also been discussions about closer defence cooperation including training for Fiji defence officials in China and providing arms, particularly for peacekeeping operations.
Beijing offered to help build a Fijian naval facility in 2015, donated a hydrographic surveillance vessel to the Fijian navy in 2018 and 47 military vehicles in 2020.
During the past decade, Beijing has also supplied police and military resources to Vanuatu, Samoa, Cook Islands and Papua New Guinea.
Assertion, competition and power in the Pacific
Dr Morgan said that even before Australia was a federated nation, the colonies were worried about a foreign power establishing a big presence in the Pacific islands.
"In the 1880s and the 1890s Australian politicians were concerned about Germany, they were concerned about France, and they called on Britain to annex parts of New Guinea and the Solomon Islands," he said.
"This is kind of an Australian strategic instinct … that foreign powers should not have a presence in the Pacific islands."
Dr Morgan said past partnerships between China and Pacific nations had prompted concerns in Australia, but nothing like the "sky high" response to the recent Solomon Islands deal.
He said a key reason for that was the changing geopolitics of the region.
"China has become more authoritarian under [President] Xi Jinping," he said.
"China has become more assertive, including things like military installations in the South China Sea."
Dr Morgan said when Mr Xi visited Canberra in 2014 at the invitation of then prime minister Tony Abbott the relations between Australia and China were quite warm.
"The rhetoric from Australian officials was about the Pacific Ocean being big enough for all of us," he said.
"Now, they're in the deep freeze, really."
Dr Morgan pointed out Fiji signed its agreements with China while its relationship with Australia was in a rough patch.
Australia had distanced itself from Fiji following a military coup in 2006, to encourage the Pacific nation to return to democratic elections, he said.
During that period, Fiji looked to China for security assistance, he said.
He added that Australia quickly sought to normalise relations after Fiji held a democratic election in 2014, and has maintained strong engagement with the Pacific nation since.
"In recent times, we've seen Australia actually building a military facility in Fiji, the Blackrock camp, and recently announced support for a new naval facility in Fiji," he said.
Solomon Islands deal 'qualitatively different'
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has denied that Australia's big fear would come to fruition and China would be allowed to build a military base in the nation.
However, the text of the pact signed by Beijing and Honiara has not been made public and a leaked draft indicated Chinese security forces could be deployed to Solomon Islands to protect Chinese interests there.
James Batley, a former Australian high commissioner to Solomon Islands, said that was one of the major concerns for Australia.
"I think that's a very open-ended commitment that Solomon Islands has signed up to and I think that's what makes it qualitatively different from the much lower-level cooperation that's taken place in the past," Mr Batley said.
The deal has also become a major topic of debate in the Australian federal election campaign.
"Clearly, the opposition has sought to exploit this agreement," Mr Batley said.
But Mr Batley said the level of concern expressed by Australia, New Zealand and the United States towards the security pact was warranted.
"I think [the deal] does suggest quite serious intent on the part of the Chinese government," he said.
"China has been intensifying its objectives of both deepening security cooperation with Pacific Island countries, but also, I think, actively undermining the interests of countries like Australia and the US."
Mr Batley added it was possible that China would seek, or even already had, similar security deals with other Pacific island nations.
Could Australia do more?
Commentators within Australia and the Pacific have said the Solomon Islands deal is a sign that Australia has neglected its relationship with the region.
Sinclair Dinnen, from the Australian National University, said when it came to policing, Australia's cooperation with the region outstripped China's.
"Australia, as traditional partners, have been engaged with Pacific island police forces over many, many years," Dr Dinnen said.
"There hasn't been much indication that the Pacific island countries themselves have been looking for additional support."
Australia was a leading member of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands, aimed at helping restore stability in Solomon Islands from 2003 to 2017, and had continued to provide training to the Royal Solomon Islands Police Force.
"I don't think you can say that Australia has not been sufficiently engaged in the security sector."
But Dr Dinnen said development partners could help address other social issues in Solomon Islands, which had a young and rapidly growing population with relatively few economic opportunities.
"That really requires a much broader human security focus," he said.
