In January 2024, the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s Middle East crisis cell awoke to the heartbreaking news that three US soldiers had been killed in a drone strike on the Tower 22 base in northern Jordan. In our headquarters in Washington DC, we were saddened – but not surprised. Back then, I was an officer in the US army, and since October, my comrades and I had become accustomed to seeing Iraqi and Syrian militias launch attacks on our bases almost every day. As the close calls and injuries mounted, we came to a stunning realisation: there was no real plan to protect US troops beyond leaving them in their small, isolated bases while local militants, emboldened and agitated by US support for Israel’s brutal war in Gaza, used them for target practice.
These soldiers were casualties of the widening regional escalation that I warned of when I resigned in May; although my chief concern then was the needless slaughter of Palestinian civilians. Months later, it’s maddening to see not only the deteriorating humanitarian crisis, but, as of Monday, our forces being used for target practice once again.
It is clear there is no real plan underpinning the Biden administration’s decision to accelerate deployment of aircraft and warships to the Middle East. It’s simply more of the reflexive and unconditional support for the government of Benjamin Netanyahu that has only encouraged reckless escalation towards a wider war. Netanyahu would not have killed senior Hezbollah and Hamas officials in Beirut and Tehran last week – leading to the wounding of US troops in a reprisal attack – if he wasn’t confident that the US navy would be dispatched immediately after to protect him from the consequences of his actions. Ten months into this war, it’s time to think harder about why we’re putting troops in harm’s way.
That more US service personnel have not been killed in this conflict is nothing short of a miracle. Like the armed drone that struck a barracks full of sleeping personnel in October, but turned out to be a harmless dud, the current turn of events is more the result of dumb luck than any measure of strategic discipline or good planning. It is a wonder that the conflict hasn’t already escalated into a ruinous full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah that drags in the US and Iran.
But our dumb luck is running out. As Iran and Hezbollah prepare to retaliate, the Biden administration cannot articulate an escalation management strategy beyond leaking stern words and hoping that nobody gets another lucky shot in. The endless rolls of the dice all but guarantee that sooner or later a Hezbollah rocket will fall short on an Israeli school, or any other number of casus belli will occur that allow Netanyahu to launch a new war in his desperate attempt to cling to power.
An invasion of Lebanon, even on the shaky ground that it’s needed in order to defeat Hezbollah, would not go well. Hezbollah soundly defeated Israel’s invasion in 2006 and is significantly stronger today. The current American protection deal – endless munitions plus US jets and destroyers to shoot down projectiles – will not be enough to protect Israel and deliver Netanyahu a victory.
If Netanyahu were to eventually demand strikes on Hezbollah targets, it’s hard to imagine Biden would, for the first time in his life, say no to him – not while images of burning Israeli tanks and cities are flooding the airwaves. But even with intensified US assistance, there is no realistic pathway to “defeating” Hezbollah without an Iraq-style occupation.
Behind the scenes of these reckless decisions will be suffering US troops, who will continue to die and be injured in these wars. What will they have died for? It would be reassuring to say they fought and died defending Israel – but that is inaccurate, when their very presence empowers the careless aggression that makes Israelis demonstrably less safe by the day. The most courageous Americans will be sacrificed to the whims of a foreign politician because their own leaders lacked the courage to stand up to him.
Since 7 October, there has been vigorous and necessary debate over the extent of the president’s responsibility to protect Israel, and likewise over his responsibility to protect Palestinians. But there has been precious little debate over his responsibility to protect our service members in this conflict.
The many critics who demanded years of investigations over the 13 US marines tragically killed during the Afghanistan withdrawal have been conspicuously silent about the deaths at Tower 22 in Jordan this year, and dozens of injuries elsewhere. And after nine months of indisputable direct combat between the US 5th fleet and the Houthis, Congress is overdue to exercise its responsibility to vote on an authorisation for the use of military force.
President Biden – and it must be President Biden, because we cannot risk six more months of playing with fire while we await his successor – can still de-escalate this spiralling conflict. He needs to leverage military support and pressure Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire and stop bombing his neighbours. Otherwise, he owes an explanation for why sending US forces to back Israel is a more successful de-escalation strategy.
He finally must be forthcoming about the risks to US personnel, why they are justified – including continued use of small, poorly defended bases – and how they contribute to the security of the American people. And even if he insists on continuing to arm Israel, he should still commit, in advance, not to strike Lebanon or Iran, so Netanyahu knows he won’t be able to drag US troops into his next war of choice. My comrades in arms deserve that much.
Harrison Mann is a former US army major and executive officer of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Middle East/Africa Regional Center who resigned in protest at his office’s support for Israel during its Gaza campaign
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