Almost four months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s policy is becoming clear. The war between Ukraine and Russia is likely to be a long one. It is becoming obvious that the western states, and particularly the countries of Europe, will have to provide assistance on an unprecedented scale, amounting to a civilian and a military aid package. This would be similar to the Marshall Plan, the funding offered by the US after the second world war to help rebuild Europe.
Putin is pursuing a brutal policy of subjugating Ukraine. He regards his country as Ukraine’s historic imperial master. To stop the war, Ukraine may have to undertake never to join or cooperate with Nato. Putin is trying to weaken Ukraine as much as he can to reduce its value to the western world it is trying to join. He will seize as much Ukrainian territory as he thinks he can hold. From the new Russian territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, Putin will then hope to dominate the rump Ukrainian state and draw it into dependence on Russia.
