The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index report from the Conference Board, issued last week, showed an unexpected sharp rise in May after five straight months of decline. The index increased by 12.3 points in May to 98, up from 85.7 in April. Historically, that’s a very large monthly move in the index.
The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions — rose 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The Conference Board said the cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19. About half of the responses were collected after the May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China.
