Memphis won its first-round game of the Men’s NCAA Tournament, but the bigger story is that highly recruited freshman Emoni Bates played in the game.
Once touted as the No. 1 overall prospect in his class, Bates had struggled while on the floor for Memphis. He averaged 10.4 points per game and had issues with efficiency. Then, he missed 12 straight games with a back injury.
In the games following his absence, Memphis was actually one of the best teams in the nation. After starting the season 11-8, the Tigers went on a 10-2 run once he was sidelined.
Since February 1, Memphis has both a top-10 offense AND top-10 defense in college basketball, per @totally_t_bomb’s metrics.
It’s really hard to overemphasize how different this team is from the one that had Emoni Bates at the start of the year. Genuine second weekend threat.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) March 13, 2022
That is why it was particularly surprising that head coach Penny Hardaway didn’t rule out a potential return for Bates in the tournament.
He noted that Bates participated in practice for Memphis. Reporters observed that Bates showed “improved biomechanics” after the injury. After missing twelve consecutive games, he looked to have the necessary fluidity for game action.
It was a pretty big deal when Bates checked into the game; it was his first appearance on the court since Jan. 27.
Bates didn’t get much burn, but he did make the sole field goal attempt he took during the victory over Boise State. It was a beautiful 3-point shot that helped pad an early lead for his team.
Emoni Bates checks in for the first time since January and knocks down a three 👌#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/I4wKkKQ1un
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) March 17, 2022
The game ended with a victory, and Bates didn’t have a tremendous impact one way or another. But in a must-win game, it was definitely a risky move for Hardaway to put Bates on the floor.
Was it the right call for Hardaway to give Bates some minutes, even if was only a few?
Bates shot less than 30.0 percent from midrange even though a significant portion of his total field goal attempts were 2-point jump shots. Meanwhile, per Bart Torvik, his turnover percentage ranked as the ninth-worst among high-major freshmen.
On the defensive end of the floor, his opponents beat him for jumpers off the dribble far too often. Overall, Bates’ defensive box plus-minus ranked as the worst on the squad.
But let’s take a step back. Bates was born in 2004. There are old college basketball players in the NCAA tournament. Bates even has one teammate, Deandre Williams, who was born in 1996. So when considering the circumstances, Bates didn’t have a particularly easy task.
Emoni Bates turned 18 two months ago. He entered the season as one of the most exciting 2023 prospects, and he's projected in the 2nd round of 2023 now.
He played awful in Memphis. But asking a 17 year old to play in a role where he isn't comfortable in, is asking for trouble. pic.twitter.com/PsZXHIKPuu
— Ersin Demir (@EDemirNBA) March 17, 2022
On the other hand, despite the success Memphis had in the win-loss column without Bates, the data from the on-court results looked fairly different.
In fact, statistics suggest the Tigers played better with Bates than without him. Memphis outscored its opponents by 16.7 points per 100 possessions when the freshman was on the floor, per Pivot Analysis, and 7.1 points per 100 when he is not.
Perhaps Memphis’ resurgence was because Williams returned from injury around the same time?
Bates is not eligible for the 2022 NBA draft, which means he will need another year of basketball before he is able to make the jump to the league. If he had not felt welcomed back by Hardaway, maybe Bates would have felt compelled to explore other options for next season.
Maybe he would have looked at the G League Ignite or maybe even move to Australia to play in the NBL’s Rising Stars program. He might still consider such opportunities — or he could take a look at the transfer portal.
However, Bates now knows what it feels like to be on the floor during a winning effort in March Madness. Additionally, he knows that Hardaway trusted him when it mattered most. Both are invaluable as he continues his basketball development.
If he gets more run in future games, and he plays well, it could have a massive impact on the 2023 NBA draft. It could also pave the way for him to return to Memphis.
