When asked how Muslim and Arab communities feel about Labor’s stance on the conflict in Gaza, Randa Abdel-Fattah doesn’t hesitate.
“They are feeling rage, disappointment and betrayal,” the activist and author said.
“I think there is a deep sense of betrayal, and there’s a sense as well that what is unfolding is a real, irrevocable change, that people are turning against a party they have traditionally voted for.”
And she isn’t alone in sensing a change in communities who have traditionally voted Labor.
“Red-hot anger” is how one Labor politician described the feeling in their community, a heartland ALP seat, over the federal government’s response to the conflict in Gaza – and the perception among some that the response, although shifting to more appropriately reflect the death toll of more than 10,000 dead Palestinian civilians, was not keeping up with wider public sentiments.
The president of the Islamic Council of Victoria, Adel Salman, said the Muslim community had “substantially turned against Labor” over its stance.
“If an election was held right now, Labor would not hold the same level of widespread support in the Muslim community as it has enjoyed for so long.”
The party is treading what many concede is an internal “tightrope” over its response to war in the Middle East, and is facing mounting calls from some in the party’s ranks – and a growing number outside the Labor movement – to support a ceasefire.
Some Labor rank and file are resigning their membership over the government’s rhetoric on the conflict in Gaza, while union members are pushing their organisations to show more public solidarity with Palestine.
Some in Labor see steadfast support of Israel as crucial to standing in partnership with both the United States and local Jewish communities concerned about antisemitism, while bolstering the government’s national security credentials and avoiding criticism from rightwing media outlets. But others are worried that a lack of more prominent support for Palestinian civilians will be punished by multicultural communities in heartland seats.
Abdel-Fattah said there was a sense that these communities, who form substantial portions of key federal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, want to “punish Labor for their stance”.
“There is an appetite for understanding the way the electoral system works, and what kind of alternatives are available,” Abdel-Fattah said.
Numerous Labor sources, both in parliament and in branches, told Guardian Australia there was obvious “tension” in how the government balanced its response; that while there was little division or acrimony playing out publicly among MPs, opinions were more stark among membership about the value (or otherwise) of the Australian government calling for a ceasefire or giving stronger condemnation of Israel’s actions.
“Labor represents a uniquely diverse coalition both in terms of its parliamentarians and the communities its seats represent – no other party has MPs of both Jewish and Islamic faith in its caucus, and Labor has both in cabinet,” said Dean Sherr, a former adviser in Anthony Albanese’s office and a member of the Jewish community.
Sherr, now a consultant, said it had led to “more diverse viewpoints and nuanced positions” in Labor than other parties.
Sherr claimed the government’s foreign policy “places our national interest ahead of domestic concerns”, praising the approach of Albanese and Wong.
“That interest is in backing Israel as a sovereign, liberal democratic nation with which Australia has longstanding and close ties in its campaign against a designated terror group in Hamas – but while stating clearly that the protection of innocent civilians and the rule of law are important,” he said.
Where might unhappy voters go?
Appeals to national interest may be of little comfort to Labor MPs facing white-hot community anger.
In Labor’s western Sydney heartland, Palestinian flags hang from homes, businesses and cars. Among these largely migrant communities, there is a sense that the party’s position on Israel and Gaza is increasingly at odds with some of the voters it represents.
“Many people from Islamic communities in western Sydney might default vote for Labor. They might now think twice about that,” one party source said.
In western Sydney, seats that were held or won by Labor at the 2022 federal election, including Reid, Watson, Blaxland and Parramatta, have substantial Muslim and migrant populations. The same situation plays out in Victoria, with Wills, Cooper, and Maribyrnong all being seats with major Muslim and migrant populations – all held by Labor.
But where these unhappy voters could go remains an open question. The Greens have been courting votes within the Islamic community, but for some of its more conservative elements, the Greens’ social policies could be an obvious impediment. The Coalition’s hardline Palestine stance is unlikely to win any supporters.
The threat of a community independent backlash similar to that which saw Dai Le win the south-western Sydney seat of Fowler at the last federal election is also one Labor is unlikely to discount. Some point to political disengagement as the main risk.
Several sources noted an interesting but politically tricky split – in Sydney and Melbourne, Labor holds many outer-suburban multicultural electorates, while simultaneously holding several seats with larger Jewish populations in Melbourne, the city where Jewish MPs including Josh Burns and the attorney general, Mark Dreyfus, also hold key seats.
Labor’s evolving and complex response
But insiders say Labor’s position is more nuanced and less static than many of its critics portray.
While much of Labor’s early response stressed solidarity with Israel – with ongoing concerns raised about social cohesion and antisemitism, including vandalism and online threats – the response shifted subtly over subsequent days.
Public statements from Muslim ministers Ed Husic and Anne Aly, as well as the western Sydney MP and senior frontbencher Tony Burke, added further complexity to Labor’s evolving response.
Husic’s intervention, the strongest condemnation of Israel’s reprisals, claimed Palestinians were being “collectively punished for Hamas’s barbarism” and raised concerns about international law violations.
Burke told Radio National that “selective grief” was not tenable, saying: “We need to be able to distinguish in the debate in Australia between Hamas and Palestinians.
“We can’t say we only grieve for certain people who are slaughtered. We can’t have a situation as a nation where we only formally acknowledge particular deaths.”
It did not go unnoticed that Husic and Burke, both prominent members of Labor’s NSW right, represent western Sydney electorates.
In the Australian, Burns wrote: “My own Jewish community … are shattered.
“Frankly, we need to ensure political contributions do not add to their anxiety. Our leadership and clarity matter in this darkness,” he said.
One source noted the government’s language shift to more strongly recognise Palestinian civilians had “annoyed” some in Jewish circles but pleased some in Palestinian and Muslim communities.
Senior Labor figures said Jewish community leaders had been happy with the Albanese government’s initial responses and public statements.
Even so, the Australian government’s moves internationally proved controversial – including a decision to abstain from a UN resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian truce in Gaza. In the 28 October vote, 120 countries supported and only 14 opposed, but Australia was one of 45 nations that chose not to vote.
Australian diplomats argued the resolution was “incomplete” because it didn’t mention Hamas as the perpetrator of the 7 October attack. Nonetheless, the decision was roundly criticised – from opposite positions – by the Coalition and the Greens, who respectively criticised Australian representatives for not opposing and for not supporting calls for the ceasefire.
Guardian Australia understands several Labor branches have passed motions condemning the government for abstaining from the vote and not calling for a ceasefire; a number of members have resigned from the party over the decision.
One longtime member said they were “shocked” at the abstention in the UN.
There are now agitations and negotiations within some trade unions to more prominently show solidarity with Palestinians, at public rallies and through other means. Numerous sources said that while the Labor movement had always had divisions on the Middle East, until recently, a show of solidarity with Palestine had not been a controversial position inside the party, pointing to Albanese’s own long-held support as evidence.
‘We do not feel represented by either’
Outside the party, the pressure on Labor to change its position has only ramped up.
Salman and the Islamic Council of Victoria have been urging the Albanese government to call for a ceasefire for weeks, and have been working with Palestinian community groups to organise rallies and statements issued in solidarity.
He said the Muslim community had turned on Labor as a result of its stance.
“There are over 300,000 Muslims in Victoria; we have a substantial community here, and they make up 10-15% of some federal seats. So Labor should be concerned, absolutely.”
According to the last census, there are more than 972,000 Muslims in NSW, mostly concentrated in western Sydney but spread across enough federal and state seats to shift election results.
Michael Mohammed Ahmad, an author and community leader, says he feels the Labor party has historically maintained the support of Arab communities by relying on being a “little bit less” of a “grim” option than the Liberal party.
“But in the last few years, there have been more and more people from Arab and Muslim communities who are no longer participating in the system because they think that it is all corrupt, whether that is Labor or Liberal.”
He says lots of people from these communities intend to donkey vote at the next election, a means of protesting Labor’s position on the bombardment of Gaza.
“I think we would rather say to the children of Gaza … ‘We didn’t participate, because we love you.’
“We are saying that we do not feel represented by either [party], that politicians are taking a position that is so heinous and vile that it feels like there is no point in participating.”
Additional reporting by Rafqa Touma
