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Politics
Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Why Labor is likely to win a House of Representatives majority despite a 33% primary vote

Labor Coalition House of Representatives Greens Deakin Bass Lyons AEC LNP
AAP/Lukas Coch

With 73% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 73 of the 151 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 54 for the Coalition, 15 Others and nine in doubt. Labor is likely to win Lyons, while the Coalition should win Bass, Cowper and Sturt. The Coalition is currently just ahead in both Deakin and Gilmore.

Labor would need to win two of the three other undecided seats if they miss out on Deakin and Gilmore. The Coalition will lose Brisbane to either Labor or the Greens. Current primary votes there are 37.0% Coalition, 28.0% Greens and 27.8% Labor. Whichever of Labor and the Greens goes out first elects the other on preferences.

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