The Atlanta Falcons have regressed to the mean in the last two weeks, suffering an unlucky loss to the New Orleans Saints and an absolute pummeling from the Denver Broncos.
This Falcons team was 6-3 until hitting this two-game skid, one that sends the team into its bye week with a 6-5 record, lots of questions to answer and plenty of injuries to mend before a Dec. 1 home stand against the red-hot Los Angeles Chargers.
Two things can be true about the Falcons right now: they are an improved group from the past six years that has promising young talent on both sides of the ball and a clear-cut plan at quarterback, and they’re not Super Bowl contenders right now.
Raheem Morris has done a really good job this season at building a seemingly strong culture and bringing in some impressive wins, and Zac Robinson has been a real find at offensive coordinator. However, this team still has plenty of flaws and probably won’t make it very far in the playoffs even if it gets there. That’s just how it usually goes in the first year of a new regime if you find some instant success.
Winning the NFC South is still very much on the table for the Falcons, as finishing with nine or 10 wins should do the job. Barring an absolute collapse after the bye, Atlanta should still be a feisty contender with plenty of talent on offense to win in shootouts and stifle lesser opponents.
While quarterback Kirk Cousins is basically still the version of himself from the Kevin O’Connell Minnesota Vikings days with even less mobility (some great games, some frustrating ones), don’t expect the Falcons to veer off their quarterback path and start rookie Michael Penix Jr. anytime soon. This was true after the team’s abysmal Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it’s still true after this two-game losing streak.
Sure, Penix came in to take relief snaps for Cousins in Sunday’s Broncos loss when it looked like the game was out of reach for Atlanta. Cousins didn’t play particularly well for the Falcons this past week, but he’s been very reliable overall for the franchise this season. Cousins also popped up on the injury report last week, hinting he might not have been 100-percent in Denver.
The Falcons have a ton of injuries, particularly on the already struggling defensive side of the ball. The team isn’t going to waltz to the playoffs this season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers getting wide receiver Mike Evans back eventually and the New Orleans Saints showing signs of life. However, both of those teams have losing records and the Falcons are 4-1 in the division. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both have a lot of ground to make up, particularly since Atlanta should still win games this season.
The Falcons aren’t benching one of the biggest reasons they’re still in first place in the NFC South and might just snap a six-season playoff drought. Penix is the future of this franchise, but two losses in consecutive weeks won’t and shouldn’t send major alarms throughout Flowery Branch. Cousins is still playing at a relatively high level for his age and physical limitations.
Atlanta’s defense is not good and will probably hold it back if it does win the division and host a playoff game. The Falcons don’t have a pass rush, the run defense is poor and the secondary is inconsistent. The offense has weeks of genuine brilliance, but it also struggles when great defensive lines make Cousins uncomfortable and the run game slows down.
Even though this Falcons team has a fairly hard ceiling, its commendable floor is such that they should still be the favorites to win the NFC South. The day will come when the franchise throws Penix the keys, but that day will not come this season. Heck, it might not even come next season at this rate. Cousins is still playing like a franchise quarterback who can help the Falcons contend, and the team will most likely invest in its defense next offseason.
We’re not sure what happens in the future, but Atlanta is still in prime position to add at least one extra game to the 2024 schedule. Cousins gives it the most obvious path to get there.
Don’t overthink this; it’s not Penix time just yet.
