Iran has threatened “irreversible destruction” of water infrastructure across Gulf countries, if the US follows through on Donald Trump’s threat to attack Iran’s electricity grid.
In a desert region heavily dependent on desalination for drinking water, it has raised fear of mass disruption to water supplies which are a civilian and economic lifeline in the Gulf countries of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.
Iran has already followed through on such as threat earlier in the war, when it targeted a desalination plant in Bahrain after one of its own plants was hit.
What is a desalination plant and why are they critical to the Gulf?
Desalination plants are considered to be among the most sensitive civilian infrastructure in the Gulf. They perform a simple but critical role: they turn seawater into drinking water by removing the salt and other minerals. Today that mostly done through a process called reverse osmosis.
These plants are completely essential for the survival of the Gulf countries, which are small but have vast cosmopolitan cities and industries and are situated in an arid desert environment. These countries have very little rainfall, few lakes or rivers and only a small supply of natural freshwater springs.
Desalination plants began to be built in the Gulf in the 1960s and 70s, when the region first started to boom from oil and gas, and were expanded in the 1990s as countries such as the UAE began to push to urbanise and expand cities such as Dubai.
All countries in the region are heavily dependent on these plants, particularly as their economies have expanded. Countries such as Kuwait get 90% of their water from from desalination plants, while for Saudi Arabia it is about 70%.
Why are desalination plants a target?
People living in the Gulf region rely on just a few desalination plants to provide most of their water, making them a highly strategic and high-impact target in any conflict. These plants are situated on the coast, just across the Arabian Gulf from Iran, making them an easy target for an Iranian attack.
Disabling the plants would have a significant impact on civilian populations and could be an effective way to cause suffering in a country without direct attacks on civilians.
It would also be devastating for industry, which also relies on the water from these plants. The Gulf’s crucial energy industries, including oil and gas, are interconnected with the desalination of water.
What threats has Iran made against water infrastructure in the Gulf?
Since the US and Israel began bombing Iran, the Iranian regime has retaliated strongly against countries in the Gulf, where several US military bases are located.
Historically, wars in the Gulf have avoided targeting desalination plants. However, after Trump threatened to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, Iran responded with threats to hit back at the Gulf’s energy and water infrastructure, saying it would cause “irreversible damage”.
Iran has already accused the US of hitting one of its own desalination plants in the war. “The US set this precedent, not Iran,” said Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi.
What would be the impact if desalination plants are targeted?
Analysts have warned that any disruption to water infrastructure could trigger a major escalation in the war, given the potential economic and civilian impact.
Most Gulf countries only have water reserves to last about a week. Analysts have said that if any of these plants are struck and capacity taken out, the impact would be quick and severe and it could wipe out water to major cities in a matter of days.
Power plants need desalinated water for cooling, so electricity supply would be affected. It would particularly affect healthcare and the running of hospitals, and would likely have to cause industries and businesses to shut down for as long as there was a water shortage.
Water rationing would likely have to be introduced. There are concerns that this could lead to mass panic and civil unrest.
