Iran has begun a formal transition, following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in American-Israeli strikes. Under the country's constitution, an interim leadership council is now in place, but this death strips the Islamic Republic of the figure who stood at the apex of power for 36 years. As some Iranians celebrate and others mourn, attention turns to whether the system Khamenei led can continue to function – and whether change will be driven from inside the country.
Khamenei, 86, had held power since 1989 and left no officially designated heir. The government announced 40 days of national mourning following his death on Saturday.
Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sought to project confidence, telling state television that Iran had prepared for “all scenarios”, including the death of its leader.
The constitutional machinery has been set in motion. Authorities said a provisional leadership council would be formed, as required by the constitution, to steer the country while a successor is chosen.
It is made up of President Massoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and cleric Alireza Arafi, a member of the Assembly of Experts and the Guardian Council.
The Assembly of Experts must appoint a new supreme leader “as soon as possible”.
That person could be chosen "within one or two days”, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera.
Observers say authorities are likely to apply the law strictly to demonstrate stability.
“You can expect Iran to apply the law rigorously to show that the country is not fragile – one leader goes, others are there,” Iran specialist Bernard Hourcade told RFI, adding that other senior Iranian officials were also killed in the strikes.
Lebanon rocked by Israeli strikes as Hezbollah joins Iran war
'A lock that has been broken'
Khamenei’s death marks an unprecedented moment for the political order he shaped for more than three decades.
“The American-Israeli strikes have destabilised the country, and the elimination of Ali Khamenei is clearly a lock that has been broken,” Hourcade said.
But removing one man does not necessarily dismantle the structure around him.
Iran is “a system” with institutions, a structured security apparatus and a network of political and economic elites, particularly around the Revolutionary Guards, which Hourcade described as the backbone of the regime.
“Eliminating a few leaders will not change the system.”
Power extends well beyond the office of the supreme leader. The structure includes the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), Iran’s elite military force; the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary group; the Guardian Council, which vets election candidates and legislation, and administrative and security networks that reach into provinces and smaller towns.
The regime has been “beheaded”, but it retains a “capacity for self-regeneration”, said Sébastien Boussois, a Middle East researcher at the European Geopolitical Institute.
"It is not because you eliminate the symbolic head of a regime and bomb a country that the country falls ipso facto."
He pointed to two precedents: al-Qaeda survived the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the Islamic State group outlasted the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
That view is echoed by others analysing the crisis. Since the strikes, many have repeated that no regime has ever been destroyed from the air. Whether this one survives, they argue, will depend on what happens inside the country.
“There will be no overthrow of the regime unless it is the Iranian population that takes its destiny in hand,” Admiral Alain Coledefy, a former inspector general of the French armed forces, told RFI.
France mobilises to help 400,000 nationals stranded due to Middle East war
A nation divided
Reactions inside Iran have been mixed. Soon after state television announced Khamenei’s death, cries of joy were heard in some neighbourhoods of Tehran and other cities, RFI’s correspondent reported.
Videos circulating on social media showed people dancing in the streets and women celebrating with their hair uncovered. In southern Iran, a crowd toppled a monument bearing Khamenei’s image as people chanted and set off fireworks.
Similar scenes were observed within the diaspora, from Europe to Los Angeles – home to the largest Iranian community outside Iran, nicknamed "Tehrangeles".
But there were also signs of grief and anger. A crowd gathered at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on Sunday morning. Prompted by a speaker with a microphone, people shouted “Death to America!” while beating their chests in rhythm, following Shia mourning traditions.
“There is no doubt that a large majority of Iranians have had enough of the Islamic Republic and want change,” Hourcade said. But bombing a country while claiming to liberate it, he added, remains an ambivalent approach.
Whether people will return to the streets as they did during January’s protest movement – which was met with a crackdown that left thousands dead according to provisional tolls – remains uncertain.
Military pressure is for now preventing mobilisation, people are not going out and schools are closed, RFI's correspondent said. The authorities have also warned against any mobilisation or collaboration with what they call "enemies".
There has so far been no violent action by citizens that could lead to an internal overthrow, such as taking control of the presidency or the government. “We are absolutely not there,” Boussois explained, pointing to the absence of a structured opposition.
EU foreign ministers warn on impact of conflict in Iran after Khamenei's death
Risk of regional escalation
Beyond Iran’s borders, the confrontation is widening.
Tehran has promised a “terrible” response, but its immediate military capacity appears limited. “The Iranian authorities are not capable, militarily, of facing it,” Coledefy said.
That does not mean Iran lacks other means of retaliation.
“We have not yet seen the reactions of its proxies,” Admiral Alain Oudot de Dainville, a member of the French Naval Academy, and former chief of staff of the French navy, told RFI – referring in particular to the Houthis in Yemen.
Iran carried out new strikes on American bases in the Gulf and in Iraq’s Kurdistan region on Sunday. Blasts were reported in several Gulf cities, including Doha and Dubai.
The position of Gulf monarchies is especially sensitive, Boussois warned. Several are viewed by Tehran as “traitor states”, he said – pointing to the 2020 Abraham Accords, which established diplomatic ties between Israel and several Arab states, as well as the presence of major American bases in the region.
Tehran could seek to “stoke tensions” to push those states into turning against the United States, he said.
Oman, which had been acting as a mediator in indirect talks between Washington and Tehran and had until then avoided being drawn into the conflict, was targeted by Iranian drones on Sunday.
The nature of the confrontation has shifted, Bertrand Besancenot, a former French ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, told RFI.
On the American and Israeli side, the aim is to destroy the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij and to neutralise ballistic missile installations, in the hope that weakening the regime could trigger a popular uprising.
On the Iranian side, the authorities believe this time it is a fight to the death and are using every tool available, he said. They are no longer only striking Israel or American bases, but widening their list of targets.
Despite the escalation, Hourcade does not expect a regional war. "I don't think it will trigger a regional war – nobody wants it and nobody can afford it."
This story has been adapted an updated from the original version in French
