This wasn’t the script for Dameon Pierce.
Last year, as a fourth-round pick from Florida, the running back was a bright spot for an underperforming Houston Texans team. He ran for 939 yards and four touchdowns on 4.3 yards per carry while briefly flirting with the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in what was almost a 1,000-yard campaign prior to injuries. By all accounts, it appeared that Pierce would be Houston’s running back of the future.
The expectations only grew when Houston hired coach DeMeco Ryans, who brought with him offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and the San Francisco “Shanahan” West Coast scheme. It was an offense that had been extremely friendly to running backs for the San Francisco 49ers and had seen Christian McCaffrey explode for some of the most productive games of his career in 2022.
Throughout training camp the coaching staff was extremely complimentary of Pierce, with Slowik himself even believing in July that, “For us to be a good offense, we have to have Dameon at his A-game.” There was no shortage of belief.
Amongst NFL running backs with atleast 100 carries, Dameon Pierce ranks dead last in success rate at 22.6% and yards per carry at 2.9 ypc.
This is beyond a sophomore slump – there are legitimate questions over his value to the roster within Houston's scheme #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) December 12, 2023
Unrealized potential
The excitement has absolutely floundered 13 games through the 2023 NFL season. Pierce is in the midst of a devastating sophomore slump. Search statistics here and has severely struggled to find his footing. Free agent acquisition Devin Singletary has been far more effective and taken the starting job with a vice grip, as evidence by the snap counts in Houston’s latest contest. Singletary played 55.8% of the snaps at running back, while Pierce was left to just 4 carries and 8 total snaps (15.4%) It’s a scenario that few around the team would have envisioned prior to the season.
This begs the question — What is wrong with Pierce? More importantly, is it something that is correctable?
The tape and the advanced metrics tell a difficult story. Pierce has not found space at all this season, he ranks last in the NFL amongst running backs with at least 100 carries in success rate, yards per carry, and yards before contact. This could reasonably be credited to an offensive line that has struggled with their rum blocking and adjusting to the zone demands of Slowik’s offense. However, this would not explain the better metrics for Singletary in these aspects.
Is Pierce not being used correctly?
There’s also an argument that the offensive staff is not utilizing Pierce correctly. He faces stacked boxes (eight-plus defenders) at a rate comparable to running backs such as McCaffrey and Tennessee’s Derrick Henry, some of the league’s best runners. He certainly doesn’t represent that caliber of threat through the tackles — is that because the play calling with Pierce is predictable?
There are also fair questions about how Houston's staff has maximized Dameon Pierce within the rest of the scheme
He sees an average of 7.12 Defenders in the Box per NGS… Only Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry see more
His plays might be predictable #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) December 12, 2023
It’s not an unreasonable theory. Pierce has seen just 10.1 passing snaps per game compared to Singletary’s 18.2. Compared to their equivalent rushing snaps (15.3 to 14.2) this essentially signals to defenses that they are half as likely to pass when the #31 is on the field.
Where does the personal responsibility lie?
A year ago, Pierce thrived with a vicious running style predicated off of explosiveness and an ability to work through contact. This year, those same attributes have haunted him.
Amongst NFL running backs with minimum 100 carries, Dameon Pierce is the only back to see *negative* yardage per carry prior to contact at -0.1 yards per carry before contact.
He leads the NFL in percentage of runs that are met before the line of scrimmage at 55.6% #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) December 12, 2023
Pierce struggled to be patience in the in the development of the gaps needed to excel in his own run game. Ironically, his propensity and love for contact with defenders has stemmed his ability to find space that Houston’s offense is trying to create for him on the ground.
Under former offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, Pierce was rewarded for his quick decision making and burst. This year, that style instead leads to finding contact with both defenders and offensive linemen prior to the natural development of running lanes. Rather than any issue with talent, it could be a simple patience problem compared to how Pierce has found success at every other stage of his career.
Dameon Pierce won Angry Run of the Year for this one #NFLHonors pic.twitter.com/1mPGHDfvGY
— Nick Scurfield (@NickScurfield) February 10, 2023
Run or shoot
The sophomore is certainly not absent of blame, but the problems are multi-factorial as they have been all season for Houston’s running game. It’s up to Slowik and the rest of the offensive staff to see if they can salvage their anticipated star and the running game at large during the next month.
Finding a path to cure Pierce and the ground game could create a legitimate path for Davis Mills this week to victory and lay the groundwork for how Houston can stay diverse against elite AFC defenses. An inability to correct this could mean an early departure from Pierce this offseason.
