Why Goldman Sachs thinks both Europe and the U.S. will avoid a recession this year

Man using thermostat while wearing sweater (Credit: Getty Images)

Good morning, Peter Vanham here, filling in for Alan.

So, will we have a recession, or won’t we?

At least one Wall Street bank is confident that both Europe and the U.S. will avoid one, thanks to a motley crew of factors, including sweaters, small businesses, and Russian oil. That is the conclusion from my chat yesterday with Goldman’s senior energy economist, Daan Struyven.

Let’s start with Goldman’s most surprising take: even Europe won’t be having a recession, despite being plagued by persistent inflation and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. That prediction is such an outlier, in fact, that no other major bank has yet followed it.