Egypt has been caught in a dilemma for weeks about opening the Rafah crossing into Gaza: wanting to help the most seriously injured Palestinians leave, but adamantly refusing to contemplate a surge of Palestinian refugees into the Sinai peninsula. “We are prepared to sacrifice millions of lives to ensure that no one encroaches upon our territory,” Egypt’s prime minister, Mostafa Madbouly, said earlier this week.
The negotiations over the release of wounded Palestinians and some foreign nationals, largely overseen by Qatar, have been inextricably linked to the flow of aid from Egypt into Gaza over the same crossing. The US president, Joe Biden, negotiated a passage for aid through Rafah, but levels are low compared to what is needed. On Wednesday the UN humanitarian coordinator, Martin Griffiths, again called for Israel to reopen Kerem Shalom, the crossing it controls at the southern tip of Gaza.
Some have criticised Egypt and its authoritarian president, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, for not opening his borders to the Palestinians since the Israeli bombardment began in response to the murderous Hamas rampage of 7 October.
Sisi said at the Cairo peace summit on 21 October that the world must never condone the use of human suffering to force people into displacement. “Egypt has affirmed, and is reiterating, its vehement rejection of the forced displacement of the Palestinians and their transfer to Egyptian lands in Sinai, as this will mark the last gasp in the liquidation of the Palestinian cause, shatter the dream of an independent Palestinian state, and squander the struggle of the Palestinian people and that of the Arab and Islamic peoples over the course of the Palestinian cause that has endured for 75 years,” he said.
Leaks from inside the Israeli government in the form of an intelligence ministry concept paper written this month suggest that one of Israel’s plans has indeed been to eject tens of thousands of Palestinians into the Sinai on a nominally temporary basis. Palestinians fear a repeat of what they call the Nakba, or catastrophe – the expulsion of 700,000 Palestinians in 1948 after the creation of Israel.
It appears also that Egypt does not want to repeat the experience of Lebanon and Jordan, which have been housing Palestinian refugees for decades. Sisi considers the housing of up to 1 million Palestinians in camps in his country a political risk not worth taking.
Some of the pro-Palestinian protests he has licensed have already used the slogans and symbols of the Arab spring 25 January 2011 revolution in Egypt, chanting “bread, freedom and social justice”. Sisi needs to channel the pro-Palestinian mood to his advantage.
Even references to a mass exodus makes Sisi jumpy. The Cairo-based Mada Masr news outlet was suspended for six months and referred to the prosecutor-general after running a report on what it said were plans for the displacement of Gaza’s Palestinians in Sinai.
On Wednesday, Rafah opened for the evacuation of dozens of injured Palestinians and hundreds of foreign passport holders, but no one knows how long that situation will last. Moreover, the selection process for who can leave – negotiated between Israel and Egypt in Qatar – is opaque. National embassies, it seems, can lobby for nationals to cross the border, but do not have a say.
Egypt’s concern is that the current trickle turns into an avalanche: Sisi has assembled a mass of tanks on the Egyptian side of the border to prevent such an occurrence.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, due in the region on Friday, clearly hopes that an orderly flow of foreign nationals leaving Gaza will continue and that it might lead to the release of more hostages, greater flows of aid and even a humanitarian pause, creating a virtuous diplomatic circle.
The UN said on Tuesday that 59 trucks carrying water, food and medicines had entered Gaza through Rafah, the largest convoy since delivery of aid resumed on 21 October, bringing the total number of trucks to 217. The aim is to reach 100 trucks a day by the end of the week.
The normal flow prior to the blockade imposed by Israel was 500 to 800 trucks a day, showing how deep the humanitarian disaster remains.
Israeli officials are also starting to highlight aid entering Gaza in tweets designed for international consumption. Entry of fuel, needed to operate life-saving equipment, remains banned but water is now being delivered by Israel through an existing pipe.
In an article in the Washington Post this week, Blinken spelled out to Israel that it would be in its own security self-interest to allow Egypt to send more aid into Gaza. He wrote: “Providing immediate aid and protection for Palestinian civilians in the conflict is also a necessary foundation for finding partners in Gaza who have a different vision for the future than Hamas – and who are willing to help make it real. We can’t find those partners if they are consumed by a humanitarian catastrophe and alienated by our perceived indifference to their plight.”
