It seems like only yesterday we were getting far too swept up in trial matches and who had trained the house down during the pre-season but, by the end of the weekend, we'll have officially hit the halfway point of the NRL season.
Every team will have played 12 of their 24 regular season matches. The luckier among us are already making finals plans, the unlucky are already putting away their hopes, dreams and tear-stained jerseys. Where does the time go?
Penrith and Melbourne still look like the two best teams in the competition, but enough of the season has passed for most teams — to varying levels of realism — to start seriously thinking about finals footy.
So, here's some reasons why each of the top eight teams can win the premiership this year, as well as some of the reasons they can't.
With apologies to the optimistic Canberra, Manly and St George Illawarra fans out there, we've kept this one as a top eight-only affair.
The 2005 Wests Tigers are the only side of the NRL era to win the competition after sitting outside the eight at the halfway point of the competition and — barring something very special — it seems likely to stay that way.
Penrith Panthers
Why they can: Have you seen them play? My God, it just looks exhausting to be on the end of it.
Rather than rest on their laurels, the defending premiers are as hungry for success as ever and with youngsters such as Taylan May and Izack Tago stepping in to replace departed stars — plus Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai and Isaah Yeo calling the shots — Penrith look every inch a team who could go back-to-back.
They never seem to dip in attitude or physicality, despite copping every other teams' best effort every week. If you were betting your life on a team this year, it'd be Penrith.
Why they can't: State of Origin is going to knock the wind out of them. That's just a fact.
It happened to the Panthers last year and it was only through digging as deep as any team has ever dug over the final three weeks of the season, when they were broken down to their most-basic elements, that Penrith could correct course and become a premiership-winning team.
They'll lose close to half their starting side to the Blues and they won't have Matt Burton to help weather the storm this time.
Barring an injury, they'll still be title favourites once Origin is over but there's a lot of ground to cover from then until now.
Melbourne Storm
Why they can: The Storm might have dropped their last two games but that was without a host of their stars. When Ryan Papenhuyzen was fit and connecting with the rest of the spine, they scored tries just by thinking about scoring them.
The addition of Xavier Coates, with his speed and aerial ability, has given them an additional attacking weapon.
Cameron Munster is playing his best footy in a couple of years and Craig Bellamy has been doing this for so long he's forgotten more about premiership charges than most coaches ever know.
They're always there at the pointy end, and they always have a say in the title race. There are children reaching adulthood this year who have known nothing in their entire lives but Melbourne's excellence, and that doesn't just go away because they've dropped a couple of mid-season matches.
Why they can't: The depth just isn't quite there. Melbourne's top 17 is still very strong but, as the past few weeks have shown, they can be just an injury or two from things seeming a lot shakier.
Nick Meaney is a capable fill-in at fullback, centre or the halves, but he can only play one position at a time.
Even fully fit, their back line is a little thin outside of Coates and Justin Olam.
Beyond that, their style demands such consistent effort week-to-week that there's a chance they won't have another emotional gear to hit in the big end-of-season matches.
That won't be a problem against most of the competition, but it's part of what cost them the prelim against Penrith last year, and given the margins will be so thin in September that the slightest crack could cause a fissure.
North Queensland Cowboys
Why they can: They've shot into top four calculations on the back of some brilliant defence, solid halves play and terrific play-making from a reborn Scott Drinkwater. The forward pack also looks reborn behind Jason Taumalolo and they've turned North Queensland Stadium into a fortress.
Only Penrith have conceded fewer points, and the Cowboys passed their first real test with flying colours last week when they ran the depleted Storm out of town. Murray Taulagi's tries should be worth extra based on style points alone.
They'll likely only lose a couple of players to Origin, which means minimal disruption. Construct an Alan Jackson playlist, post-haste.
Why they can't: Have only left Queensland once this season and that was to go to Darwin, so they're a little untested in Sydney conditions. The win over Melbourne was impressive, but the Storm's list of injured players takes some of the shine off it.
Taumalolo's knee injury has come at the worst possible time and they'll miss him badly for this week's trip to Penrith. Of their spine, only Chad Townsend has ever played in a finals match and he can't gift his experience to Dearden, Drinkwater or Robson.
Given they haven't played in the finals since 2017, the Cowboys are not as battle-hardened nor experienced in the big matches as Penrith or Melbourne nor even Parramatta.
Cronulla Sharks
Why they can: There's only upside for Craig Fitzgibbon's team, and what they've produced over the first half of the competition has already been rather impressive. Nicho Hynes has taken on chief play-maker responsibility with ease and Matt Moylan has produced his best and most-consistent run of football in many years.
Their back five are exceptional in both yardage and on attacking sets, and Blayke Brailey is this year's most improved player. Fitzgibbon himself will only get better as a coach as the season continues.
The Sharks are sitting strong in fourth place, but have so much more growing to do and so much more improvement in them. It feels like they are not yet what they will become.
Why they can't: After winning four games in a row from round 2 to round 5, the Sharks have struggled for consistency, alternating wins and losses.
The reintroduction of Wade Graham, a true warrior for the club, has been awkward because they don't look as dangerous without Teig Wilton's excellent line-running on the left edge and a hard call might need to be made if they're to aim as high as their talent demands.
Dale Finucane's head knocks should be of real concern, given his whole-hearted style and the Sharks have missed the hard edge he's provided in the middle. Might have a bit of a problem handling teams they're supposed to beat, given they were strong favourites in their past two losses, where they were ambushed by Brisbane and Canberra.
Brisbane Broncos
Why they can: Kevin Walters has managed to concoct five wins in a row on the back of a highly enthusiastic, eye-catching style of footy that involves Adam Reynolds kicking the other team to death, Selwyn Cobbo scoring tries that make the ground shake and Payne Haas finally getting some support in the middle of the field from the likes of Pat Carrigan, Kobe Hetherington and unheralded prop Corey Jensen.
Corey Oates has been hooked up to some kind of rejuvenation machine.
The fans have been crying out for some success and now they're sensing a bit of a 2006 vibe around the place .
Lang Park will soon become one of the most-intimidating places to play in the entire competition.
Why they can't: Wherever the Haas contract saga ends up, it's likely to get worse before it gets better and things have already become as messy as a small-town divorce.
Given the youth and inexperience of the team, it's a distraction they don't need, regardless of what happens next.
Reynolds has a reputation as being injury-prone, which isn't quite accurate, given he's played more than 20 games each over the past five years, but Brisbane rely on him a lot and he carries plenty of bumps and bruises.
Ezra Mam might be alright for one or two weeks, but without Reynolds the Broncos could fall apart quickly.
Parramatta Eels
Why they can: Any team that can go into Melbourne and Penrith and come home with wins has to be taken seriously. Despite being one injury in the outside backs away from dragging punters from the front bar of Parra Leagues Club to play on the wing, the Eels managed to weather the storm and are now getting players like Waqa Blake and Maika Sivo back into the team.
Brad Arthur has found a great balance in his forwards, with Ryan Matterson's move to the middle a particular success.
Mitchell Moses and Dylan Brown continue to improve, both as individuals and as a combination, and this is as good a year as any to leave 1986 behind and start making some new memories.
Why they can't: The Eels have one last bad habit they can't seem to shake: They find it really difficult to back-up their best performances. They lost the week before and the week after their mighty win over Penrith, both to fellow top four aspirants in North Queensland and the Sydney Roosters.
They've also dropped a game to the Tigers and barely snuck home against a Manly side that was without Tom Trbojevic.
Their talent is obvious — and we know they can rise to the challenge and take on the best teams in the competition in a one-off deathmatch — but, to win the premiership, you need to do that at least three times in a row. Do they have that kind of consistency in them?
Sydney Roosters
Why they can: Duh, because they're the Roosters? This is what they do. Even if there's been a few shaky losses through the first half of the season, is anyone really that worried?
No team knows how to time their run better than Trent Robinson's side, who understand that the best team over the course of a season doesn't always win the title — it's what you do during the finals that really counts.
James Tedesco is still one of the best players in the competition, Sam Walker isn't far off joining him, Joseph Suaalii has given their backfield an extra dimension and Luke Keary will get closer to his best football the more he plays. Everything is going to be fine.
Why they can't: They're relying a lot on the individual brilliance of Walker and Tedesco to create points and they seem to struggle with their execution most weeks.
There's a bit of a concern over their forward pack, which is still very reliant on Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, and Sam Verrills's injury has made hooker a concern — Connor Watson and Drew Hutchinson are both good players, but dummy half isn't a natural position for either of them.
This is a team with so much upside but the only time we've seen them hit something close to what felt like their top gear was their win over Parramatta in the Magic round, and half a season is a long time to only show flashes of their ceiling.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Why they can: Once Latrell Mitchell comes back from America with a hamstring made of liquid steel and Cameron Murray comes back into the side, this will be like a different football team. The rest of the forwards have been underrated this year and, if Jai Arrow sticks to the middle permanently, they'll back themselves to be able to out-muscle most packs.
Damien Cook is still one of the best hookers in the league and Cody Walker will get better the more he plays with Lachlan Ilias. A lot of things have gone wrong for Souths in the first half of the year and they're still sitting in eighth spot, which suggests if their luck turns so will their results.
Why they can't: They really, really need Mitchell to have the Superman cape on once he returns, because they just can't score points when he's not there. Walker is really feeling the added organisational duties left to him now he's the senior man in the halves and Ilias is still very much finding his way in first grade. Murray will barely play over the Origin period and, if he does, he'll have a lot of miles on him by season's end.
Finding two more outside backs to play alongside Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston has been a challenge, as has locating a forward for the left edge. It feels as though a lot of things need to go right for the Rabbitohs to rise above the bottom half of the eight, and making the finals is fast beginning to look like a best-case scenario.
