The ACC as a whole is not the college basketball stalwart it usually is, but Big Monday’s clash between the No. 7 Duke Blue Devils and the visiting Virginia Cavaliers is still must-see action. Duke (19-3, 9-2 ACC) sits atop the conference standings, while the 2019 champions are currently sixth in the ACC. Virginia (16-9, 8-5 ACC) got off to a slow start this season with several new faces, including leading scorer and Jayden Gardner, a transfer from ECU.
The Cavaliers will need Gardner (14.4 points per game, 6.8 rebounds per game) and Indiana transfer Armaan Franklin (12.3 ppg) to put up points against a Duke defense that ranks 15th on KenPom. The Blue Devils have a collection of highly talented players that pose difficult matchups for any opponent, led by freshman sensation Paolo Banchero (17.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg).
Both teams are coming off of big wins on Saturday as Duke dominated rival UNC in Chapel Hill and Virginia shot lights out against a better-than-expected Miami squad. Will matchups negate the defensive prowess of potential ACC Defensive Player of the Year Reece Beekman? Will the talent of Jeremy Roach, Wendell Moore, and Trevor Keels be too much to manage?
Tipico Sportsbook has Duke as double-digit favorites before game time.
Spread: Duke (-10.5)
Moneyline: Duke (-700), Virginia (+470)
Over/Under: 128.5
Although the Blue Devils are understandably heavily favored in this matchup, recent history has shown that the Duke-Virginia games have been pretty close. How close? The average margin of victory is under five points:
The avg. margin in the last 12 Duke-UVa games is 4.6 pts
1/12/12 – W, 61-58
2/28/13 – L, 68-73
1/13/14 – W 69-65
3/16/14 – L 63-72
1/31/15 – W 69-63
2/13/16 – W 63-62
2/15/17 – W 65-55
1/27/18 – L 63-65
1/19/19 – W 72-70
2/09/19 – W 81-71
2/29/20 – L 50-52
2/20/21 – W 66-65— #DukeMBBStats (@DukeMBBStats) February 7, 2022
This is definitely a Virginia squad that isn’t quite at the same level that we’ve come to expect from Tony Bennett teams, but if history is any indicator, it might end up being closer than expected.
The game is at 7pm on ESPN.
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