One of the few success stories of the Conservative government is the fall in inflation, which is now close to the target rate set by the Bank of England. In April 2024, the consumer price index, the most common measure of inflation, increased by 3% over the previous year compared with a 9.6% annual increase in October 2022.
However, this good news for Rishi Sunak and the government has not moved the dial by changing voting intentions in the polls. According to the BBC tracker poll of polls, the Conservatives are currently 21% behind Labour in voting intentions, a gap which has not really changed since Liz Truss departed from Downing Street in October 2022.
This is a puzzle because one the best established findings in political science is that the economy always plays a big role in influencing voters in elections. At the moment, the most important issue in the election campaign is the state of the economy, particularly the cost-of-living crisis. Since this issue is very salient it should help the Conservatives, but it appears to be making no difference.
