On July 10, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) analyst Allen Lutz published an analyst note on Teladoc Health, Inc (NYSE:TDOC).
What Happened: The Bank of America analyst had a Neutral rating on Teladoc with a $42 price objective. Lutz’s analysis came after the company released two new data points and its second-quarter model assumptions.
Information to Know: The first data point was related to a branch of Teladoc Health, Livongo. This area focused on creating new technologies to advance the way patients experience telehealth and in-home health care. Livongo has several large contracts expected to go live in the second half of 2022, according to Lutz.
In addition, there was a report that the number of new downloads for Livongo’s app slowed down at the start of July, but Lutz remains unfazed as it was expected for the holiday weekend.
The second data point is related to BetterHelp and the future of online therapy during the recession. According to a cost of therapy survey conducted by Verywell Mind, 31% of respondents shared that they had paused their mental health services. Respondents shared they felt it was more important to “save money for other, larger expenses” amid a possible recession.
While this survey could seem alarming for the industry, it ran counter to BetterHelp’s uptick in subscribers. The online therapy service remains at a low cost and although not immune to the recession, the company should stay unfazed during this time period.
The Teladoc Bull Case: The bulls believe that Teladoc is in a strong position to succeed in the second quarter. If Livongo can continue to increase consumer confidence and BetterHelp can improve cost trends, then the company will be in a financially strong position. If these trends exist, then the stock will trade at around 20x EBITDA with a 20% revenue growth for the next two years. Lutz also noted that if Teladoc has a strong quarterly report then 20x EBITDA is too low of an expectation for the share price.
The Teladoc Bear Case: The bears worry advertising rates are structurally higher following Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) privacy changes and it will not be followed by a rapid reduction in search/social media costs. Bears also noted a disconnect between Sensor Tower’s credit card data which could cause a growth in subscriptions to be muted. This could be caused by BetterHelp’s partnership with singer Justin Bieber. In addition, bears also flag a possible decrease in revenue for BetterHelp amid a possible U.S. recession.
Photo: Teledoc
