I’ve heard a rumour that Observer readers might be on the leftier end of the market. So, on average, you’re going to really like what follows.
Here’s the key question: how rightwing is the electorate? Less than most politicians assume is a story often told in the US, where pre-pandemic research confirmed this to be the case. Maybe watching too much Fox News gives elected officials a skewed perception of the land of the free and home of the brave.
But is this a US phenomenon that tells us nothing about the rest of the world? Like baseball. No is the new answer from researchers who interviewed 866 politicians across Belgium, Canada, Germany and Switzerland. Comparing politicos’ perception of their electorates with what the voters actually think (from surveys of the population), they find this conservative bias in perceptions of public opinion is widespread – politicians across all four countries consistently overestimated how rightwing their voters were.
This was true for politicians on the left and right alike, in contrast to the US where it’s largely Republican politicians who overestimate how rightwing voters are. Disappointingly, the researchers don’t have an answer to what lies behind this conservative bias, but show that it’s found on cultural and economic issues – from pensions, redistribution and workers’ rights, to attitudes toward same-sex couples. The only exception was immigration, where politicians in Germany and Canada underestimated their punters’ rightwing leanings.
Now we don’t want you passing out with the excitement of being vindicated whenever you accused politicians of pandering to a rightwing minority, so here’s something to ponder. If the punters are more leftwing than politicians think, why do the Conservatives end up winning most British elections?
• Torsten Bell is chief executive of the Resolution Foundation. Read more at resolutionfoundation.org
