What has prompted the US airstrikes in Syria?
Over the last 10 days, US military bases in eastern Syria and western Iraq have been hit by rockets and drones. There have been 22 such attacks, although details are sketchy and some may not have been counted. More than 20 US service personnel have been injured, though not seriously, and a civilian contractor died of cardiac arrest.
Earlier this week, Joe Biden promised a response if the attacks continued. On Thursday, there were more. This led to airstrikes, carried out by F-16 jets with precision munitions, on a warehouse and a bunker that reportedly contained weapons stored by the groups responsible. No casualties were reported.
Is Iran behind the attacks?
Responsibility for the attacks has been claimed by the previously unknown Islamic Resistance of Iraq, which experts say is a new name invented to allow multiple extremist groups in Syria and Iraq to give the impression that a single, major organisation is behind them. This almost certainly is not true, and may hide the key role played by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
There is no direct evidence at present, or at least none in public, linking Iran to the attacks, but the various extremist groups that make up the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq are all known to have been founded, funded or otherwise assisted by Tehran. This does not mean they always follow Iranian orders, only that they are closely aligned.
As such, they are considered part of the “axis of resistance” established by Tehran as a chain of proxy groups across a swath of the Middle East from Yemen to the Mediterranean coast. The most powerful is Hezbollah in Lebanon, but the network also includes the Houthis in Yemen as well as Hamas in Gaza, whose terrorist attack on Israel on 7 October killed 1,400 people and sparked the war in Gaza.
What does the US hope the airstrikes will achieve?
The US has already moved two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean and deployed more military assets, especially anti-missile batteries, around the region with the aim of deterring Iran, which does not want to risk a costly all-out confrontation.
The US also wants to protect the approximately 900 US soldiers in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq who are there to reinforce the campaign against Islamic State (IS).
“These Iranian-backed attacks against US forces are unacceptable and must stop,” said the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, after the US strikes. “Iran wants to hide its hand and deny its role in these attacks against our forces. We will not let them. If attacks by Iran’s proxies against US forces continue, we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people.”
The prospect of massive use of US air power may also help to convince Tehran that a major Hezbollah offensive against Israel would be a bad idea.
Is this a major escalatory moment?
This is the most direct use of force by the US since the crisis in the Middle East began almost three weeks ago. With the war in Gaza causing massive civilian casualties and an Israeli ground offensive looming, analysts say the region is a powder keg.
Nevertheless, the attacks of recent days and the US response are finely calibrated. This is more about messaging than actually trying to do harm. Experts say Iran is telling the US that it has the capability to hurt and embarrass Washington.
The US has made clear its own concerns, and that the “self-defence strikes … were intended solely to protect and defend US personnel in Iraq and Syria”. This sends the message: you back off and we’ll back off.
“We continue to urge all state and non-state entities not to take action that would escalate into a broader regional conflict,” Austin said.
