It was only about a month ago that the Detroit Lions toiled in a familiar obscurity at 1-6. Their talented offense, led by Jared Goff, seemed irreparably broken, ill-prepared for an entire season. Defensively, they probably couldn’t stop an actual nosebleed, as even squads like the offensively-challenged New England Patriots quite literally ran them off the field.
My, my, how fast a team’s outlook can shift on a dime in the NFL.
Ever since a close 31-27 defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins on Halloween weekend, the Lions have morphed into a late-season juggernaut. They’ve won four of their last five games, book-ending their recent hot streak with a 40-14 beatdown of the Jacksonville Jaguars, where they scored on all eight possessions. Their only defeat was a tightly-contested Thanksgiving battle with the Buffalo Bills, who, it should be noted, are the current No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Detroit now stands at 5-7, just outside of the current playoff picture (ninth place). Should the right dominoes fall down over the next few weeks, it even looks like a dangerous dark horse in a top-heavy NFC.
How did the Lions get here? Why should the other NFC contenders fear them? And could they make it to meaningful football in mid-January? Let’s break down this talented Motor City squad that’s finally seeing the fruits of its labor pay off.
Ben Johnson's steady hand
At a first glance, and with Goff as the Lions’ quarterback, you’d laugh in my face if I said they weren’t to be messed with. Goff isn’t an awful starting QB. Far from it. But he’s someone who’s usually needed a near-perfect situation — especially in terms of coaching — around him to play well. For the most part, during the first phase of his career with the Los Angeles Rams, Goff had that situation with the brilliant Sean McVay.
In his second year with the Lions, Goff, once again, has an ingenious offensive mind to collaborate with in Ben Johnson.
After working his way up through the organization, the 36-year-old Johnson — who’s in his first year as Detroit’s offensive coordinator — has become one of the hotter potential head coaching candidates for steering the Lions offense. At this pace, he’s probably the frontrunner for Assistant Coach of the Year.
Detroit’s attack leans on a multifaceted and diverse running game centered around the talents of the powerful Jamaal Williams (who leads the league in touchdowns with 14) and the swiftness of D’Andre Swift (pun completely intended). With a three-month sample size, Johnson’s proven he knows how to maximize his players and put them in an optimal position to succeed.
In only 12 games as the Lions’ coordinator, Johnson’s feel for the game seems and looks excellent, as he usually dials up exactly what the offense needs, depending on the context. Beyond the numbers, the eye test usually tells me the same. For example, rarely do I feel like Detroit picks the “wrong play” on a third down, with Johnson doing plenty of foundation-setting beforehand. It’s difficult to stay in rhythm as an offensive coordinator, to keep defenses on their toes, but that hasn’t been a problem for Johnson. It’s no wonder the Lions have the NFL’s 10th-ranked third-down offense (42.76 percent).
On a larger macro level, Detroit has the sixth-ranked scoring attack (26.3 points per game), the ninth-ranked offense in yardage and in Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency metric, and is the league’s best in the red zone. Think about it. They’ve scored a touchdown on almost 74 percent of their red-zone possessions. For a team tied for second in red-zone attempts (46, with the Bills) — that’s pretty darn good!
A string of Ben Johnson appreciation tweets…
Lions are now 4th in the NFL in points per drive (2.45), trailing only the Chiefs, Eagles, and Bills.
Just 24.0% of the Detroit possessions have failed to gain a 1D or TD now, second in the league only behind the Chiefs (21.5%).
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) December 5, 2022
Johnson knows what he’s doing, and the Lions are reaping the benefits. I find it hard to believe he stops pulling the right strings with five weeks to go.
A perfect offense
Johnson’s job is made easier because he gets to work with one of the better offensive rosters in the NFL. (Though, to be fair — most coordinators probably wouldn’t do well without much talent.)
Williams and Swift’s deftness as runners aside, Detroit plays a terrific brand of “bully ball” thanks to a wall of an offensive line. From left to right, Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Evan Brown and Penei Sewell form one of the NFL’s premier OLs. Their adjusted line yards in creating holes for the Lions’ running game rank fourth in the NFL (4.75). Meanwhile, their adjusted sack rate is just 4.4 percent — second in the league. It’s no wonder Williams and Co. see so much space in the open field while Goff is on pace for one of the best years of his career. They’re getting to the second level without being touched while Goff often has a stellar pocket.
These Lions are, in essence, a classic case study of what it means to invest in the offensive line and see those investments pay off. Decker, Ragnow, and Sewell are all former first-round picks, while Jackson (a third-rounder) and Brown (a UDFA) are testaments to quality in-house development. Piece a group like that together, and the havoc they’ll create as one giant Honolulu blue amoeba is inevitable.
Speaking of playmakers taking advantage of complementary support, Amon-Ra St. Brown has become a top-flight receiver. After a hot start to the year, injuries temporarily derailed St. Brown’s trajectory. Over the last month of play, he’s clearly quite healthy:
Amon-Ra St. Brown in the last 4 games: 37 catches, 431 yards, 3 TDs
— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) December 4, 2022
There are security blankets and then there’s the electric St. Brown (tied for eighth in the NFL in receptions with 76) catching almost 10 passes over the top every Sunday after defenses cheat up defenders in the box to stop the Lions’ impeccable ground game. Some plans are just foolproof.
To entirely belabor the point, the Lions traded T.J. Hockenson — a great tight end — to the rival Minnesota Vikings at the deadline. And, ever since, they haven’t missed a beat. That alone should tell you all you need to know about what was left over in Detroit’s offensive room.
A favorable stretch run of a schedule
The Lions do not control their own playoff destiny, but their remaining slate of games is a beautiful gift for a team peaking at the right time. With games against the four-win Carolina Panthers, the three-win Chicago Bears and the five-win Green Bay Packers (the latter two of which Detroit already beat this year) remaining — the Lions hold the 23rd strongest remaining schedule, per ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The two teams that theoretically are in a better position to knock the Lions are the paper tiger 10-2 Vikings — who oddsmakers fittingly see as underdogs to Detroit. And the New York Jets, who are leaning on (checks notes) Mike White at quarterback. Inspiring stuff. Really!
There’s an entirely realistic scenario where the Lions don’t lose another game this season. And even if they do, I find it more likely it only happens once, leaving Detroit at a minimum of a solid 9-8 by the time the curtains fall on the 2022 campaign. In a logjam of an NFC featuring the Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants and Washington Commanders currently flailing about just ahead of the Lions, I have a feeling all Detroit needs to do is take care of business to play meaningful January football.
Where they might fall short
The Lions don’t have the NFL’s worst defense, but it’s not exactly a unit capable of standing on all four legs without some shaky buckling. Bambi — eat your heart out.
There are some nice pieces on this defense — Defensive Rookie of the Year contender Aidan Hutchinson, former top-three pick Jeff Okudah, and 2022 Hard Knocks star Malcolm Rodriguez — but the sum of its parts is still mostly underwhelming.
Detroit currently ranks:
- Last in scoring defense (27 points a game)
- Second-to-last in third-down defense (48.6 percent conversions allowed)
- 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA
- And second-to-last in opponents’ TD red-zone percentage (66.6 percent!)
If that bend-and-break-extremely-often defense weren’t enough, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn’s unit isn’t an immaculate group when it comes to forcing turnovers, either. The Lions have 15 takeaways this year, enough to tie them with other talent-bereft groups like the Bears and the Atlanta Falcons — two squads who may as well be fielding 11 human turnstiles on defense.
Suffice it to say: The Lions are built around their incredible offense, while they hope and pray their defense can make a timely play. Such a chaotic mix might still be enough to sneak into the NFC postseason, but it also presents a potential underlying disaster.
The Pride of Michigan
It’s been a long time since the Lions were this interesting. While they still have a ways to go before they can be considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender (watch this space in 2023!) — what Dan Campbell’s bunch is accomplishing right now makes them a force to be reckoned with.
I don’t necessarily expect the Lions to make a deep playoff run in January. But I wouldn’t bet against it. What I do foresee happening is for this organization to make life a living hell for the other NFC playoff contenders while they continue to lay down a bright, promising foundation for the future.
The Lions — a fun and good team. Who would have thought?
