- Analysts appreciated Autodesk, Inc (NASDAQ:ADSK) for growing amid macro headwinds.
- Autodesk reported Q1 FY23 results that were ~3% above Rosenblatt analyst Blair Abernethy's revenue expectations, with higher than anticipated margins, as demand remained strong across its verticals and geographies.
- While Product usage rates in Europe dropped temporarily as the Ukraine crisis began, they steadily recovered back to trend.
- However, with forex headwinds and the withdrawal from the Russian market, Autodesk trimmed its FY23 Billings growth outlook, Revenue growth, and Non-GAAP operating margins.
- Abernethy believes this quarter demonstrated the resilience of Autodesk's subscription-driven revenue base and its broadened product offering that can continue to add growth despite macro headwinds.
- Abernethy maintains a Buy rating with a price target of $285.
- Credit Suisse acknowledged Autodesk's solid Q1 results, beating consensus on revenue and cash flow despite continued macroeconomic headwinds. The results and full-year guidance reinforce its belief that Autodesk is no longer highly cyclical despite concentrated vertical exposure.
- Autodesk can still significantly grow (although at a slightly slower rate than previously expected) through near-term geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions as the company continues to benefit from the tailwind of transitioning its sizeable installed base to subscriptions.
- Credit Suisse views Autodesk's long-term growth drivers as idiosyncratic.
- Specifically, Autodesk ended Q2 FY22 with ~2.0 million active non-subscriber users, equating to an active base of ~8.1 million users entering FY2023.
- Credit Suisse believes active non-subscriber users will convert to paid subscription plans over the next ~5-7 years and serve as a tailwind enabling Autodesk to grow subscriptions and revenue over the long term driving earnings power.
- Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating with a price target of $355.
- Price Action: ADSK shares traded higher by 9.01% at $208.90 on the last check Friday.
