Aurinia Pharmaceuticals topped Wall Street's fourth-quarter expectations Monday, but AUPH stock plummeted on lackluster guidance for its lupus treatment, Lupkynis.
For the year, Aurinia predicted $115 million to $135 million in Lupkynis sales, well below the Street's call for $182 million, RBC Capital Markets analyst Douglas Miehm said in a note to clients. Miehm modeled $157 million in sales of the lupus nephritis treatment.
The guidance calls for about 150%-200% year-over-year growth in Lupkynis sales. But Aurinia says it expects the Covid pandemic to have an impact on its business in 2022.
On today's stock market, AUPH stock plunged 24.3% to 12.30.
AUPH Stock: Company Has 'Aggressive' Outlook
Lupkynis is Aurinia's only product, so investors are hanging their hats on a strong launch. The drug gained Food and Drug Administration approval in January 2021. Lupkynis partners with immune system-suppressing drugs to treat a type of lupus that causes kidney inflammation. In patients with lupus, the immune system becomes overactive and attacks the tissues and organs.
In its first full year on the market, Lupkynis generated roughly $45.49 million in sales. That hit the middle of previous guidance for $40 million to $50 million in full-year sales, SVB Leerink analyst Joseph Schwartz said in his note to clients. Total revenue was $45.61 million, above the call from AUPH stock analysts.
"In the fourth quarter, the company saw 477 patient start forms, a modest increase over the 412 seen in the prior quarter; the company secured 1,572 patient start forms in 2021," he said. "Despite a slower start in the early quarters, we are encouraged by the trends seen in the later quarters."
During a recent conference, Aurinia management said the Street would see "aggressive numbers" for its 2022 outlook, Schwartz said. Asked about that after the Monday call, Aurinia reportedly called its prediction for 150%-200% sales growth "worthy of the term 'aggressive.' "
"This divergence from consensus reminds us of the first couple quarters of Lupkynis' launch, when management was focused on the longer-term trajectory, rather than the initial ramp which was the focus of investors," he said. He kept his outperform rating on AUPH stock.
Quarterly Measures Beat Expectations
During the fourth quarter, Lupkynis generated $23.38 million in sales. Total revenue, which includes license and contract revenue, was $23.4 million. That beat AUPH stock analysts' estimate for $22 million, according to FactSet.
Per-share losses were 25 cents, narrower than expectations for 27 cents.
Still, AUPH stock fell to its lowest point since July 2021, according to MarketSmith.com.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
